Match Analysis: South Florida Bulls vs VCU Rams – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-26
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Yuengling Center, USF Tampa campus
Game Overview
The South Florida Bulls host the VCU Rams in an NCAA men's basketball game as part of the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament. The Bulls have a strong offensive output with an average of 100 points per game but suffered a recent narrow loss to Oklahoma State. VCU boasts a slightly lower scoring average of 87.6 points per game and comes off a dominant home win against Coppin State. The previous encounter between these teams was a close 70-65 win for VCU in March 2024, indicating a competitive matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- South Florida holds a 3-2 record with recent form including a narrow road loss and four players regularly scoring in double figures. VCU is also 3-2, undefeated at home (3-0), but winless away (0-2), with a solid average margin of +16 points in wins. South Florida's offensive efficiency (KenPom rating 80) is slightly lower than VCU's (KenPom rating 54), but Bulls have a recent trend of high-scoring games and rebounds.
- This is the 40th meeting between the two teams. VCU leads the recent series with a narrow 70-65 victory in their last matchup in March 2024. Historically, the teams have been competitive, but VCU has had slight dominance recently with 1 win in last meeting and overall data showing no South Florida wins in recent H2H results.
- No significant injuries reported for either team ahead of this match, allowing both sides to field their typical lineups at full strength.
- Playing at home at the Yuengling Center gives South Florida a home-court advantage with strong fan support. The game is part of a high-profile tournament, possibly elevating motivation levels. Both teams have been consistent scorers; weather and travel conditions are typical and not expected to impact performance.
- USF seeks to bounce back from a recent tough loss and leverage their home advantage. VCU aims to maintain their undefeated home record in the tournament setting and continue their strong defense and scoring balance. Both teams will be motivated given their tournament setting and recent competitive history.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls: 116, VCU Rams: -140 | VCU Rams | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | South Florida Bulls +2.5: -120, VCU Rams -2.5: -102 | VCU Rams -2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 172.5: -110, Under 172.5: -110 | Under 172.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | VCU Rams -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 172.5 34% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 172.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
VCU is favored to win narrowly due to their recent head-to-head success and stronger home performance metrics. The Bulls' scoring ability and home advantage keep them competitive, but VCU's defense and balanced attack provide a slight edge. The game is expected to be close and under the total points line.
Predicted Score: VCU Rams 88 – South Florida Bulls 84