Match Analysis: Van Y Nghiem vs Lawrence Lui – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-22
• Time: 9:00 AM UTC
• Location: Road to UFC: Shanghai, Shanghai

Game Overview

The bout features Van Y Nghiem facing Lawrence Lui at the Road to UFC event in Shanghai. Lui enters as a clear favorite with moneyline odds around -200, reflecting stronger recent form and more experience on bigger stages. Nghiem is the underdog at +160, seen as less proven but with potential upset value.

Key Factors to Consider

• Lawrence Lui has demonstrated consistent recent performances in regional MMA competitions, advancing in skill level and fight IQ. Van Y Nghiem has shown promise but lacks notable victories against high-level opponents.
• No direct head-to-head matchup exists between these two fighters, so comparative analysis relies on recent opponents and fight style differences.
• No reported injuries or physical setbacks have been disclosed for either fighter close to the fight date.
• Fighting in Shanghai may slightly favor Van Y Nghiem due to geographical proximity and possible acclimatization advantages, but Lui's experience likely mitigates this.
• Both fighters have strong motivation to secure a win on a Road to UFC card, but Lui’s status as the favorite and more established athlete suggests higher psychological readiness and confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Lawrence Lui: -200, Van Y Nghiem: +160	Lawrence Lui	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Lawrence Lui -1.5 rounds: -135, Van Y Nghiem +1.5 rounds: +115	Lawrence Lui -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -120, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Lawrence Lui -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Lawrence Lui at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Lawrence Lui to win by Moneyline

Predicted Score: Lawrence Lui wins by decision or late stoppage within 3 rounds