Match Analysis: Usman Nurmagomedov vs Paul Hughes – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: October 3, 2025
• Time: 5:00 PM UTC
• Location: Coca-Cola Arena, Dubai

Game Overview

Usman Nurmagomedov, the undefeated lightweight champion, faces Paul Hughes in a highly anticipated rematch. Their first bout was closely contested, with Usman winning by majority decision.

Key Factors to Consider

• Usman Nurmagomedov is undefeated and has shown strong performance in recent fights. Paul Hughes lost in the first bout but is highly motivated for revenge.
• Usman Nurmagomedov won the first bout by majority decision, indicating a slight edge over Hughes.
• No significant injuries reported for either fighter.
• The rematch and the Dubai setting could add pressure, but both fighters are experienced.
• Paul Hughes is highly motivated for revenge, while Usman Nurmagomedov aims to continue his winning streak.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Usman Nurmagomedov: -225, Paul Hughes: +190	Usman Nurmagomedov	★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under	Over 4.5: -125, Under 4.5: +105	Over 4.5	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Usman Nurmagomedov -21%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 4.5 8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 4.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Usman Nurmagomedov is likely to win by decision.

Predicted Score: Usman Nurmagomedov by decision