Match Analysis: UL Monroe Warhawks vs Arkansas State Red Wolves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: JPS Field at Malone Stadium, Monroe, Louisiana
Game Overview
The UL Monroe Warhawks (2-1) host the Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-3) in a Sun Belt Conference matchup. Both teams have shown competitive play recently, with UL Monroe winning their last game 31-25 over UTEP and Arkansas State narrowly losing 28-21 to Kennesaw State. The game is expected to be close, with UL Monroe slightly favored on the spread and moneyline, and a moderately high total points line reflecting potential for a competitive scoring contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- UL Monroe has a positive early season record (2-1) and recent momentum from a victory. Arkansas State struggles at (1-3) but has kept games competitive, losing by a single score in their last outing.
- Recent historical rivalry data is limited but current season form and home advantage give UL Monroe a slight edge. Both teams are Sun Belt opponents with relatively balanced head-to-head data at this venue.
- No major injury reports are available from the recent data, suggesting both teams likely field close to full-strength lineups.
- The game is played at UL Monroeβs home stadium, which provides a familiar environment for the Warhawks. Weather or significant external disruptions have not been indicated. The timing of the game in early season suggests teams are still establishing consistency.
- UL Monroeβs better record and home advantage likely increase their motivation to maintain momentum. Arkansas State, seeking to improve their season, has incentive to upset and regain competitive standing.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas State Red Wolves: -108, UL Monroe Warhawks: -112 | UL Monroe Warhawks to win | β β β ββ 58% |
| Spread | Arkansas State Red Wolves: 1.5 -115, UL Monroe Warhawks: -1.5 -105 | UL Monroe Warhawks to cover the -1.5 spread | β β β ββ 56% |
| Over/under | Over: 53.5 -112, Under: 53.5 -108 | Under 53.5 total points | β β β ββ 54% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UL Monroe Warhawks 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 53.5 4% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 53.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UL Monroe is favored to win narrowly with a projected score that reflects a competitive game but slight home edge. The spread of -1.5 points for UL Monroe is realistic given recent form and venue advantage.
Predicted Score: UL Monroe Warhawks 24 – Arkansas State Red Wolves 21