Match Analysis: Sam Patterson vs Trey Waters – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 5:45 PM UTC
• Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

Sam Patterson and Trey Waters face off in the Welterweight division at UFC Paris. Patterson carries a strong record of 13-2-1 with notable reach advantage and efficient striking defense, while Waters is an aggressive striker with a 9-1 record known for his pressure and output.

Key Factors to Consider

• Patterson has a 13-2-1 record, showcasing consistency with a balanced striking output (3.17 significant strikes/min, 41% accuracy) and strong defense (48% striking defense). Waters is 9-1, with higher striking volume (6.43 significant strikes/min, 44% accuracy) but absorbs more strikes (5.61/min) despite a better defense rate (56%).
• They have no prior head-to-head matchups, so direct comparative historic performance is unavailable.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter prior to the fight.
• The fight takes place at a major UFC event in Paris, which may somewhat favor Patterson given his higher experience in big cards, but both fighters are motivated to solidify their standings.
• Patterson seeks to maintain momentum and capitalize on his experience; Waters aims to prove himself with an upset win on a prominent stage.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Sam Patterson: -185, Trey Waters: +154	Sam Patterson	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Sam Patterson -3.5: -120, Trey Waters +3.5: -110	Sam Patterson -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -188, Under 1.5: +145	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sam Patterson -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 47%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 47% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sam Patterson to win via moneyline

Predicted Score: Sam Patterson wins by decision or late stoppage within 3 rounds