Match Analysis: Tottenham Hotspur vs Bournemouth – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-30
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England
Game Overview
Tottenham Hotspur will host AFC Bournemouth in the 3rd round of the 2025-26 Premier League season. Tottenham currently ranks 2nd in the league, while Bournemouth holds the 9th position. Historically, Tottenham has dominated the head-to-head (H2H) record, winning twice as many matches as Bournemouth and generally scoring more goals per match. This match features Tottenham as favorites but Bournemouth has shown capability to challenge, notably winning 1-0 in their last away meeting.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tottenham Hotspur have won 3 of their last 5 matches, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. They have kept the most clean sheets in the competition so far (2). Bournemouth’s recent form is less consistent, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 5 matches. They average 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded per match. Tottenham also has a higher Asian Handicap win percentage (40%) versus Bournemouth’s 0% in recent games.
- Tottenham and Bournemouth have met 17 times since 2009, with Tottenham winning 12 matches, Bournemouth 3, and 2 draws. The total goals scored across these matches heavily favor Tottenham (42 goals vs 12). Recent matches since 2023 show Tottenham winning 2 out of 4 encounters while Bournemouth won once (including a 1-0 win on 05.12.2024).
- Current injury specifics are unavailable from the data, but no notable absences for key players have been reported that could significantly impact the match outcome.
- The match will be played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, providing a home advantage to Tottenham. Weather or other external conditions are not reported to affect the game significantly. Both teams have sufficient motivation early in the season to secure points.
- Tottenham, sitting 2nd in the league, is strongly motivated to maintain momentum and assert dominance against a mid-table Bournemouth team. Bournemouth will aim to upset favorites and improve their standing, but given recent form and historical results, motivation slightly favors Tottenham.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bournemouth: 320, Tottenham Hotspur: -140, Draw: 300 | Tottenham Hotspur win | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Bournemouth: 50 @ 1.07, Tottenham Hotspur: -0.5 @ -1.43 | Tottenham Hotspur -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 3.5: 1.29, Under 3.5: -1.73 | Under 3.5 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tottenham Hotspur 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3.5 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Tottenham Hotspur at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tottenham Hotspur are the clear favorites to win this fixture based on historical dominance, current form, and home advantage. A moderate confidence level supports a Tottenham win, with a low probability for a draw and an underdog chance for Bournemouth.
Predicted Score: 2-1