Elijah Smith vs. Toshiomi Kazama Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-09
  • Time: 8:00 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

The bantamweight bout between Elijah Smith and Toshiomi Kazama at UFC Vegas 109 features two orthodox fighters with contrasting styles. Elijah Smith, a 22-year-old rising prospect with a slick wrestling base and proven cardio, holds a record of 8-1. Toshiomi Kazama, aged 28, is a seasoned fighter with an 11-4 record and a higher significant strike accuracy. Both fighters compete at 135 lbs with similar reach and height, setting up an intriguing matchup between Smith's aggressive offense and Kazama's striking precision.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Elijah Smith averages 3.83 significant strikes per minute landing 41% while absorbing 3.87 per minute with a 47% strike defense rate. Kazama lands fewer strikes (1.72 per minute) but at a higher accuracy of 53% and allows slightly more strikes per minute (3.89) defending 42%. Smith has demonstrated balanced fight control through wrestling and cardio, while Kazama relies on precision striking.
  • This match marks their first encounter with no previous head-to-head record.
  • No injury reports or notable physical setbacks have been reported for either fighter ahead of the bout.
  • Fighting at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, neither fighter has pronounced home advantage. The event timing and venue conditions are standard without external disruptions.
  • Smith is a young rising prospect seeking to maintain his unbeaten trajectory, whereas Kazama aims to leverage his experience and striking finesse to upset the favorite and advance his UFC standing.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Elijah Smith: -700, Toshiomi Kazama: 500 Elijah Smith ★★★★☆ 85%
Spread +1.5 Elijah Smith / -1.5 Toshiomi Kazama Elijah Smith -1.5 ★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under Over 1.5: 100, Under 1.5: -130 Under 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Elijah Smith -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Elijah Smith is favored to win by decision or late stoppage due to his wrestling dominance and higher fight pace, overcoming Kazama's striking precision.

Predicted Score: Elijah Smith wins by decision or stoppage in round 2 or 3


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