Match Analysis: Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-09
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
Elijah Smith (8-1) faces Toshiomi Kazama (11-4) in a bantamweight bout at UFC Vegas 109. Smith is younger with a significant striking volume advantage, while Kazama shows higher strike accuracy.
Key Factors to Consider
- Smith has a strong recent form with 8 wins and only 1 loss, showing a higher pace and volume in striking (3.83 significant strikes per minute) compared to Kazama (1.72). Kazama has more career fights and slightly better accuracy (53% vs 41%).
- No known direct prior matchups between Elijah Smith and Toshiomi Kazama.
- No reported injuries on either fighter leading into the bout.
- Fight is at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, neutral ground with no clear home advantage. Both fighters orthodox stance, with Smith having a 2-inch reach advantage.
- Smith, at 22 years old, appears to be rising fast with motivation to solidify status in the division. Kazama, at 28, seeks to leverage experience to upset the rising prospect.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Smith -700, Kazama +500 | Elijah Smith | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Smith -1.5 / Kazama +1.5 (implied) | Elijah Smith -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 +100, Under 1.5 -130 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Elijah Smith -11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Elijah Smith moneyline win
Predicted Score: Elijah Smith via 2nd round TKO