Match Analysis: Benfica vs Tondela – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-23
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio da Luz
Game Overview
Benfica hosts Tondela in a Portugal Primeira Liga match. Benfica have historically dominated this matchup, with a strong recent form, and significant home advantage. Tondela struggles notably against Benfica and currently sits near the bottom of the league standings.
Key Factors to Consider
- Benfica won 12 of the last 14 meetings with Tondela, scoring on average 2.5 goals per match and conceding only 0.57. They also have a strong start this season while Tondela has lost both their opening matches and is 17th in the table.
- Out of 14 encounters, Benfica have 12 wins and 1 draw versus only 1 Tondela win. Benfica scored 35 goals against Tondela’s 8 across these matches, showing dominance especially at home.
- No major injury concerns announced for Benfica. Tondela’s key players have some minor fitness issues but no confirmed absences, yielding slightly weakened squad depth and quality.
- The match is at Benfica's home stadium, Estádio da Luz, offering a significant home ground advantage. Weather and travel impact are minimal.
- Benfica, currently mid-table, are motivated to push for European qualification spots and maintain home dominance. Tondela faces pressure from relegation zone proximity, but morale may be low after recent losses.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | benfica: -725, tondela: +1500, draw: +700 | Benfica | ★★★★☆ 87% |
| Spread | benfica_-2: -122, tondela_+2: +102 | Benfica -2 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | over_3: -118, under_3: -102 | Over 3 Goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Benfica -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Benfica to Win
Predicted Score: 3-0