Match Analysis: Matt Turnbull vs Tom Pagliarulo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-01
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey
Game Overview
Matt Turnbull and Tom Pagliarulo face off in a featherweight showcase bout during the 2025 PFL World Tournament Finals at the iconic Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall. Turnbull (9-6) brings a solid professional record and experience, while Pagliarulo (9-2) makes his PFL debut with a reputation as a rising star known for his wrestling base and growing striking skills.
Key Factors to Consider
- Matt Turnbull has a mixed record (9-6), showing resilience but some inconsistency. Tom Pagliarulo (9-2) is on an upward trajectory with a strong wrestling foundation and improved striking, having recently joined the PFL and making a notable debut.
- No recorded head-to-head bouts as of the latest data; this matchup marks their first professional encounter.
- No specific injuries reported for either fighter leading up to the match.
- The bout is part of the PFL World Tournament Finals, carrying significant stakes and viewed on major platforms such as ESPN+. The venue, Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, provides a historic and high-pressure environment.
- Pagliarulo is motivated by his PFL debut and a desire to establish himself as a top contender, carrying the nickname 'The Phenom' and a hunger for greatness. Turnbull aims to reaffirm his position and leverage his experience against a rising opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Matt Turnbull: 400, Tom Pagliarulo: -550 | Tom Pagliarulo to win | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Matt Turnbull: +2.5 rounds, Tom Pagliarulo: -2.5 rounds | Tom Pagliarulo to win by more than 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | over_2.5_rounds: 1.9, under_2.5_rounds: 1.9 | Under 2.5 rounds (early finish expected) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tom Pagliarulo -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Tom Pagliarulo at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tom Pagliarulo is favored to win given his better current form, stronger wrestling background, and higher confidence entering the PFL stage. Matt Turnbull may pose challenges with experience but his inconsistency is a limiting factor.
Predicted Score: Tom Pagliarulo wins via 2nd round TKO