Match Analysis: Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 2:15 AM UTC
- Location: RAC Arena, Perth, Western Australia
Game Overview
Lightweight UFC Fight Night bout between Tom Nolan and Charlie Campbell, two top contenders with strong striking and grappling abilities. Nolan holds a slight edge in recent form and physical attributes.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tom Nolan comes in with a 9-1 record, showing steady improvement and finishing capabilities, whereas Charlie Campbell holds a 9-2 record with a solid mix of striking but slightly less finishing power recently.
- No known previous direct matchups between Nolan and Campbell, so historical H2H data is unavailable; stylistic analysis favors Nolan's southpaw stance against Campbell's orthodox.
- No recent or reported injuries to either fighter; both appear fully healthy heading into the bout.
- Fight takes place at home continent for both fighters, with Nolan slightly younger and possibly better acclimated to fight conditions in Perth.
- Nolan motivated to solidify his UFC contender status with a marquee win; Campbell aims to rebound after a recent close decision loss, adding slight psychological pressure.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Charlie Campbell: +124, Tom Nolan: -148 | Tom Nolan | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Charlie Campbell +3.5: -125, Tom Nolan -3.5: -105 | Tom Nolan -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: +140, Under 2.5: -180 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tom Nolan -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 -10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Tom Nolan at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tom Nolan to win by moneyline
Predicted Score: Tom Nolan wins by decision or late stoppage within 3 rounds