Match Analysis: Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi
Game Overview
UFC 321 heavyweight title fight between home fighter Tom Aspinall and challenger Ciryl Gane. Both are top-tier heavyweights with distinct styles: Aspinall is a strong grappler with high submission averages, while Gane excels in striking and technical stand-up. Aspinall's recent form shows high takedown accuracy and submission threats, while Gane leverages reach and striking volume.
Key Factors to Consider
- Aspinall holds a record of 15-3 with 100% takedown accuracy recently, averaging 3.27 takedowns per fight and 1.63 submissions per 15 minutes, indicating strong ground control. Gane has a record of 13-2, with superior striking volume (8.07 significant strikes landed per minute vs. Gane’s 5.26) and decent takedown defense (75%), but less ground finishing ability.
- No direct previous matchups, but stylistically Aspinall’s grappling may neutralize Gane’s striking advantage if clinch and ground transitions succeed.
- No publicly reported injuries for either fighter at this time suggesting both are at full fitness.
- Fight held in neutral venue (Abu Dhabi) minimizing home crowd impact. Both fighters motivated to win the heavyweight title, implying high intensity.
- Aspinall fights for title supremacy with confidence from effective ground game; Gane aims to regain belt with precise striking and reach advantage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tom Aspinall: -355, Ciryl Gane: 280 | Tom Aspinall | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Tom Aspinall: -310, Ciryl Gane: 215 | Tom Aspinall -13.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: -120, Under 1.5 rounds: -110 | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tom Aspinall -9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 25% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tom Aspinall to win via submission or decision
Predicted Score: Tom Aspinall wins by submission or decision after round 2