Match Analysis: Tofiq Musayev vs Myktybek Orolbai – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-21
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Baku Crystal Hall, Baku, Azerbaijan
Game Overview
The upcoming UFC lightweight bout features Tofiq Musayev, an Azerbaijani power striker known for his 18 knockout wins in 22 victories, against Kyrgyzstan's Myktybek Orolbai, a technical fighter with 13 wins and strong recent UFC experience. Musayev is making his UFC debut after competing in Rizin and Bellator, while Orolbai aims to rebound following a close split decision loss and a solid professional streak.
Key Factors to Consider
- Musayev boasts a record of 22-5 with 18 KOs, showcasing superior striking power and finishing ability. Orolbai holds a 13-2-1 record, with 6 knockouts, and recently earned 'Fight of the Night' honors despite his loss, illustrating competitiveness and durability.
- There is no previous head-to-head history between Musayev and Orolbai, making this their first encounter.
- No reported injuries for either fighter have been disclosed ahead of the matchup.
- The fight takes place in Baku, Azerbaijan, giving hometown advantage and likely crowd support to Tofiq Musayev. Orolbai has publicly stated readiness and confidence, hinting at intense preparation for this bout.
- Musayev is highly motivated to impress in his UFC debut on home soil after recent knockout success. Orolbai is eager to bounce back from a close UFC loss and prove his competitive edge against a powerful striker.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tofiq Musayev: 130, Myktybek Orolbai: -155 | Myktybek Orolbai to win | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Spread | Tofiq Musayev +3.5: -150, Myktybek Orolbai -3.5: 110 | Myktybek Orolbai to cover -3.5 spread | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: -260, Under 1.5 rounds: 195 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Myktybek Orolbai -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 112% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 112% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 57.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Musayev's knockout power, hometown advantage, and recent form, he is favored to win, but Orolbai's durability and experience in the UFC present a credible challenge, especially if he can withstand early pressure and take the fight into the later rounds or decision.
Predicted Score: Musayev by KO/TKO Round 2