Match Analysis: Thomas Petersen vs Vitor Petrino – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-11
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Game Overview
Heavyweight UFC bout between Thomas Petersen and Vitor Petrino, featuring two contrasting styles and similar physical stats, set for October 11, 2025 at UFC Rio.
Key Factors to Consider
- Petrino holds a 12-2 record with high striking accuracy (45%) and solid defense (47% strikes absorbed). Petersen is 10-3 with higher striking volume and accuracy (59%) and better defense (57%). Petersen recently won decisively via unanimous decision over Don'Tale Mayes.
- No direct previous matchups between the fighters.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout.
- The fight takes place at UFC Rio, Petrino's home country, likely favoring him psychologically and crowd support. The southpaw Petersen may present stylistic challenges.
- Petersen appears motivated coming off a recent win and is slightly older (30 vs 28), while Petrino aims to maintain dominant home status with a strong 12-2 career.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Thomas Petersen: +240, Vitor Petrino: -298 | Vitor Petrino | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Thomas Petersen +3.5: +130, Vitor Petrino -3.5: -180 | Vitor Petrino -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: -200, Under 1.5 rounds: +154 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vitor Petrino -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 52% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 52% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Prediction favors Vitor Petrino on moneyline given his strong form, home advantage, and betting market consensus despite Petersen’s higher striking output.
Predicted Score: Vitor Petrino wins by decision or late finish within 3 rounds