Match Analysis: Jermell Charlo vs Thomas LaManna – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-31
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Michelob Ultra Arena at Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino, Las Vegas, NV
Game Overview
Undefeated two-division champion Jermall Charlo returns after nearly two years away, moving up in weight to face experienced but less heralded Thomas LaManna for the WBA Continental Americas super middleweight title. Charlo is widely favored due to his superior record, power, and elite experience, though concerns exist about his long layoff and ring rust. LaManna is on a nine-fight win streak and is motivated to upset, but his record suggests he struggles against top competition.
Key Factors to Consider
- Jermall Charlo: 33-0-0 (22 KOs, 66% KO rate), former unified middleweight champion, high-level experience, but inactive since late 2023. Thomas LaManna: 39-5-1 (18 KOs, 46% KO rate), active recently, nine-fight win streak, but lost in previous step-up bouts.
- First meeting between the two fighters.
- No reported injuries.
- Charlo is jumping in weight class and returning from a long layoff. LaManna is experienced but has struggled against elite opposition.
- Charlo aims to prove he’s still elite and set up a super middleweight title shot. LaManna views this as his big chance to break through.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jermall Charlo: -1500, Thomas LaManna: 800 | Jermall Charlo | High |
| Over/under | over: -115, under: -115 | Over 8.5 rounds | Moderate |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jermell Charlo 744% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 8.5 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Jermell Charlo at 744% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 93% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Charlo is expected to overcome ring rust and win by unanimous decision or late stoppage, but LaManna’s activity and motivation could make the fight more competitive than odds suggest if Charlo is rusty.
Predicted Score: Jermall Charlo by unanimous decision (or late stoppage), expected to win after 8.5 rounds.