Match Analysis: Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moises – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-17
- Time: 10:35 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas
Game Overview
The upcoming MMA match between Jared Gordon and Thiago Moises is set to be an exciting lightweight bout. Jared Gordon, a seasoned fighter with a record of 20-7, faces Thiago Moises, who boasts a similar record of 19-8. Both fighters are evenly matched, with Jared Gordon slightly favored in the moneyline odds.
Key Factors to Consider
- Jared Gordon and Thiago Moises have comparable UFC records, with a mix of wins and losses. Gordon's recent performance has been scrutinized, while Moises benefits from training with top teams like American Top Team.
- This is their first encounter, making it difficult to predict based on past meetings.
- No recent significant injuries have been reported for either fighter.
- Gordon is 36 years old, while Moises is 30, which might affect Gordon's performance.
- Both fighters are motivated to win, but Moises's training with top teams could give him an edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jared Gordon: -122, Thiago Moises: 102 | Thiago Moises | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Spread | Jared Gordon: -3.5 +175, Thiago Moises: +3.5 -245 | Thiago Moises | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 -330, Under: 2.5 +240 | Under | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Thiago Moises 11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 87% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 87% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Thiago Moises is slightly favored due to his age and training background.
Predicted Score: Decision win for Thiago Moises