Match Analysis: Vanderbilt Commodores vs Texas Southern Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-21
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Memorial Gymnasium, Nashville
Game Overview
The Vanderbilt Commodores, undefeated at 4-0, host the struggling Texas Southern Tigers, who are 0-4 this season. Vanderbilt boasts a strong scoring average (101.5 points/game) and efficient shooting (52.9%), paired with solid defense that limits opponents to 72.8 points/game. Texas Southern has struggled offensively and defensively, turning over the ball 15.5 times per game with a losing margin in their last games. The line and odds strongly favor Vanderbilt given their dominance in multiple facets.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vanderbilt is highly efficient offensively and defensively, shooting 52.9% and forcing 10.5 turnovers per game; they average 101.5 points and 40.8 rebounds, led by Duke Miles (16.3 PPG, 5.8 APG). Texas Southern struggles offensively with 42.6% shooting, high turnovers (15.5 per game), and averaging only 31.5 rebounds, contributing to their 0-4 record.
- No recent head-to-head data available, but Vanderbilt's superior form and ranking (76th) compared to Texas Southern's (369th) suggest a clear advantage.
- No significant injury updates reported for either team influencing this matchup.
- Vanderbilt has home-court advantage at Memorial Gymnasium, important given Texas Southern's poor road performance and Vanderbilt's strong home results.
- Vanderbilt seeks to maintain a perfect start and strong conference positioning, while Texas Southern aims to reverse a poor start, but disparity in team strength and recent form lowers Texas Southern's chances.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores: -1500, Texas Southern Tigers: +1200, Draw: N/A | Vanderbilt Commodores | ★★★★★ 95% |
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores -35.5: -118, Texas Southern Tigers +35.5: -104 | Vanderbilt Commodores to cover -35.5 | ★★★★★ 90% |
| Over/under | Over 168.5: -112, Under 168.5: -108 | Under 168.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 168.5 16% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 168.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Vanderbilt Commodores are heavily favored to win and cover the large spread due to their offensive prowess, defensive strength, depth, and home advantage. The total points are expected to go Under the line, given cautious scoring pace despite Vanderbilt's high output and Texas Southern's offensive struggles.
Predicted Score: Vanderbilt Commodores 98 – Texas Southern Tigers 62