Match Analysis: Canelo Álvarez vs Terence Crawford – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-14
• Time: 4:00 AM UTC
• Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, United States

Game Overview

Canelo Álvarez defends his undisputed super middleweight titles against Terence Crawford, who moves up two weight divisions for the fight. Both are elite pound-for-pound fighters, making this a high-profile matchup for legacy and championship unification.

Key Factors to Consider

• Canelo holds a record of 63-2-2 with 39 KOs, showing consistent elite performance at super middleweight. Crawford is undefeated at 41-0 with 31 KOs but has limited experience at super middleweight, with most of his career at lighter weights.
• This is their first and only matchup, so there is no direct head-to-head data available.
• No significant recent injuries reported for either fighter ahead of the bout, both appear in prime condition to compete at their best.
• The fight takes place at a neutral high-profile venue, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, enhancing motivation. Both fighters aim to cement their legacies, increasing motivation. Crawford faces challenges moving up two weight classes.
• Extremely high for both fighters as this bout determines undisputed super middleweight supremacy and cements legacy; Crawford aims to make history across three weight classes, Canelo seeks to defend and maintain supremacy.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Canelo Álvarez -182, Terence Crawford +159	Canelo Álvarez	★★★★☆ 74%
Spread	Canelo Álvarez -1.5 rounds -110	Canelo Álvarez by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 10.5 -385, Under 10.5 +306	Under 10.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Canelo Álvarez -9%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 10.5 164%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 10.5 at 164% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 53.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Canelo Álvarez moneyline win

Predicted Score: Canelo Álvarez by 11th round TKO