Match Analysis: Tecia Torres vs Denise Gomes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: UFC on ESPN 73, Las Vegas, Nevada
Game Overview
The upcoming UFC women's strawweight bout between Tecia Torres (now known as Tecia Pennington) and Denise Gomes is set for November 8, 2025, at UFC on ESPN 73. Pennington, a veteran of the division, faces the rising contender Gomes, who has shown explosive striking and aggressive tendencies. Both fighters are ranked within the top 15, making this a pivotal matchup for the division's hierarchy.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tecia Pennington (15-7, 11-7 UFC) is known for her technical striking, defensive awareness, and high fight IQ. She has consistently performed well against top competition, with a recent record of 3 wins in her last 5 bouts. Denise Gomes (11-3, 5-2 UFC) is a younger, aggressive striker with a strong record in recent fights, including 4 wins in her last 5. Gomes has shown improved cardio and finishing ability, but her defense can be vulnerable against more experienced opponents.
- This is the first meeting between Tecia Pennington and Denise Gomes. There is no prior history or previous encounters.
- No recent injuries have been reported for either fighter. Both are expected to be at full strength for the bout.
- The fight takes place in Las Vegas, a neutral venue. Pennington has significant experience fighting in the UFC's main events, while Gomes is still building her reputation on the big stage. The event is expected to draw a large crowd, which could impact the atmosphere and fighter focus.
- Pennington is motivated to re-establish herself as a top contender after a recent loss. Gomes is looking to break into the top 10 and potentially challenge for a title shot with a win over a veteran like Pennington.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Denise Gomes: -175, Tecia Torres: 150 | Tecia Torres | Not available |
| Spread | Denise Gomes -1.5: -110, Tecia Torres +1.5: -110 | Tecia Torres +1.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -350, Under 2.5: 280 | Under 2.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Denise Gomes 50% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 166% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 166% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 59.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Denise Gomes is favored by the bookmakers due to her recent form and aggressive style. However, Tecia Pennington's experience and technical skills give her a strong chance to outwork Gomes over three rounds. The fight is likely to be close, but Pennington's defensive skills and ability to control the pace could give her the edge in a decision victory.
Predicted Score: Tecia Pennington by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)