Match Analysis: Tatiana Suarez vs Amanda Lemos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 9:45 PM UTC
- Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio
Game Overview
Tatiana Suarez faces Amanda Lemos in a highly anticipated strawweight bout, with Suarez favored due to superior striking accuracy and defense, recent competitive form, and motivation to rebound after her first career loss.
Key Factors to Consider
- Suarez holds an 11-1 record with a high striking accuracy (61%) and strong defense, allowing only 1.58 significant strikes per minute. Lemos is 15-4-1, landing 54% of strikes and absorbing 3.46 per minute, indicating Suarez's dominance in striking exchanges.
- No prior head-to-head fights recorded between Suarez and Lemos.
- No current injury reports affecting either fighter as of fight week.
- Fight takes place at a neutral venue; no external environmental or travel-related disadvantages reported.
- Suarez is highly motivated to rebound from her first career loss and reassert her position as a title contender. Lemos aims to break into the top tier with a win, making the motivation relatively even but with Suarez slightly favored due to recent title experience.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tatiana Suarez -455 / Amanda Lemos +350 | Tatiana Suarez | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Tatiana Suarez -7.5 (-140) / Amanda Lemos +7.5 (+100) | Tatiana Suarez -7.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds (+100) / Under 2.5 rounds (-130) | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tatiana Suarez -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tatiana Suarez to win by decision
Predicted Score: Suarez wins by unanimous decision (3-0 rounds)