Match Analysis: Baylor Bears vs Tarleton State Texans – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 15, 2025
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: Waco, Texas (Baylor Home)

Game Overview

Baylor Bears host Tarleton State Texans in an NCAA Men's Basketball matchup. Baylor enters as a heavy favorite with moneyline odds of -10000, reflecting their significant dominance over Tarleton State. This is a non-conference game featuring a Power 4 program against a lower-tier opponent.

Key Factors to Consider

• Baylor is a well-established NCAA Division I program competing at the highest level. Tarleton State competes at a lower tier of college basketball. The massive moneyline odds (-10000) indicate sportsbooks view this as a near-certainty Baylor victory.
• Baylor holds a 4-1 record against Tarleton State in their last five matchups, with recent dominance. Most recently, Baylor defeated Tarleton State 80-57 in June 2022. Baylor's home record against Tarleton is 3-1, with a current winning streak of 3 consecutive victories against the Texans.
• No injury information available from provided data.
• Baylor is playing at home, a significant advantage. The extreme odds suggest this is a heavily mismatched contest in terms of program resources, talent, and competitive level.
• Baylor, as the favored home team, has motivation to establish dominance early and maintain their winning streak. Tarleton State, as a significant underdog, may play with desperation but faces an uphill battle against superior competition.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Baylor Bears to win convincingly at home. The massive spread of -24.5 and moneyline of -10000 reflect the talent gap between these programs. Expect Baylor to control the game from start to finish with a decisive victory.

Predicted Score: Baylor 78, Tarleton State 53

Match Analysis: Tarleton State Texans vs Merrimack Warriors – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-12
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Wisdom Gym, Stephenville, TX

Game Overview

Tarleton State Texans (1-2) host Merrimack Warriors (0-2) in a non-conference NCAAB matchup. Tarleton State enters as favorites with a modest home-court edge, while Merrimack has struggled offensively and defensively in their first two games.

Key Factors to Consider

• Tarleton State averages 73.7 PPG and 26.3 RPG, but allows 89.7 PPG. Merrimack averages 61.5 PPG and 23.0 RPG, allowing 85.0 PPG. Merrimack shot just 28.6% FG and 25% 3PT in their last game, while Tarleton State has shown more offensive consistency but poor defensive discipline.
• No recent H2H data available; this is a rare matchup between the two programs.
• No major injuries reported for either team.
• Game is played at Wisdom Gym, Tarleton State's home venue, which provides a slight home-court advantage. No weather or crowd size concerns.
• Tarleton State seeks to improve to 2-2 and build momentum, while Merrimack is looking for their first win after two blowout losses.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Tarleton State covers the spread and wins outright, but the game remains relatively low-scoring due to Merrimack's offensive struggles.

Predicted Score: Tarleton State 76, Merrimack 64

Match Analysis: Tarleton State Texans vs Texas A&M-CC Islanders – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 9, 2025
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Unknown (home venue assumed)

Game Overview

A neutral-site or home contest between two struggling mid-major programs. Both teams enter with recent losses and questions on both ends of the court, with Tarleton State 0-2 (two blowout road losses) and Texas A&M-CC 1-1 (coming off a 69-58 road loss). Neither has a discernible edge in form, making this a true toss-up for oddsmakers.

Key Factors to Consider

• Tarleton State is 0-2, having lost by 36 points at LSU and a previous road loss; their defense is conceding 96 points per game. Texas A&M-CC is 1-1, with a home win and an 11-point road loss at SMU, conceding just 62.5 points per game. Offensive output is similar (70.5 ppg for Texas A&M-CC, 68.0 for Tarleton State), but Texas A&M-CC is far better defensively so far this season[2][3].
• Head-to-head data is not available in the search results.
• No injury information is available in the search results.
• No major external factors (travel, venue, weather) are noted in the search results.
• Both teams are hungry for a win after early-season struggles. Tarleton State is winless and at home, possibly increasing their motivation to avoid an 0-3 start. Texas A&M-CC will look to bounce back from a road loss.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Texas A&M-CC has a slight statistical edge, especially on defense, but Tarleton State’s home (or equivalent) advantage and the even betting lines make this a true coin-flip. The best value lies in the under, as both defenses—despite Tarleton’s poor numbers—are more likely to dictate a slower, lower-scoring game than the total suggests.

Predicted Score: Texas A&M-CC Islanders 68, Tarleton State Texans 67

Match Analysis: Army Black Knights vs Tarleton State Texans – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-29
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Blaik Field at Michie Stadium, West Point, NY

Game Overview

This season opener features the Army Black Knights hosting the Tarleton State Texans. Army is stepping into the season fresh with a strong defensive reputation and a disciplined run-heavy offense, while Tarleton State enters after a dominant season start with a blowout 42-0 win, showcasing explosive offense and strong playmakers.

Key Factors to Consider

• Tarleton State arrives 1-0 with a convincing 42-0 victory, featuring efficient QB play and strong rushing attack. Army starts 0-0 but has historically demonstrated disciplined defense and physical style, preparing to exploit Tarleton's inexperience against FBS caliber teams.
• No recent direct matchups; this will be an early contest between an FBS independent (Army) and an FCS playoff-qualifying team (Tarleton State) with a different level of competition the prior season.
• No significant publicly reported injuries for either team as of current data, with both sides expected near full strength entering this key matchup.
• Game played at Army's home stadium with favorable weather predicted (71°F, low chance of rain), minimal environmental impact. Army’s famed home-field environment and disciplined preparation add to their edge.
• Army motivated to start season strong on home turf and validate their FBS status. Tarleton State motivated by proving competitiveness against a higher division opponent and building momentum after a big opening win.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Army Black Knights are favored to win outright given the jump in competition level and home-field advantage; however, the Texans may cover the large spread due to their high-scoring potential. The total points lean under, expecting a physical, defensive Army style to limit scoring.

Predicted Score: Army Black Knights 27 – Tarleton State Texans 14

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Match Analysis: Cal Baptist Lancers vs Tarleton State Texans – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-14
• Time: 3:30 AM UTC
• Location: Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center, Riverside, California

Game Overview

Cal Baptist Lancers host Tarleton State Texans in a Western Athletic Conference matchup. Cal Baptist is favored, reflecting their stronger performance this season.

Key Factors to Consider

• Cal Baptist averages 72.2 points per game, while Tarleton State averages 64.1. Cal Baptist has a better rebounding margin and more assists per game.
• Cal Baptist has historically performed well against Tarleton State, winning five out of seven recent matchups. However, Tarleton State won their last two meetings.
• Dominique Daniels of Cal Baptist is out with an undisclosed injury. No significant injuries reported for Tarleton State.
• The game is at Cal Baptist's home court, which could provide an advantage. Recent form shows Cal Baptist struggling with consistency.
• Both teams are motivated to close the regular season strongly, but Cal Baptist may have more to prove given their current standing.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Cal Baptist is likely to win due to their home advantage and statistical superiority.

Predicted Score: Cal Baptist 73, Tarleton State 60

Match Analysis: Tarleton State Texans vs Utah Valley Wolverines – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-09
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Tarleton State Texans' home venue

Game Overview

Utah Valley Wolverines, with a strong 22-7 record, face Tarleton State Texans, who have a 12-18 record. Utah Valley has recently dominated Tarleton State, winning their last two matchups.

Key Factors to Consider

• Utah Valley has a higher scoring average (76.52 points per game) compared to Tarleton State (63.60 points per game). Utah Valley also has a better field goal percentage (47.03%) than Tarleton State (43.24%).
• Utah Valley has won six of the last nine matchups against Tarleton State, including their last two encounters. The most recent game ended with Utah Valley winning 81-56.
• No specific injury reports are available for this matchup.
• Home advantage might slightly favor Tarleton State, but Utah Valley's recent form and head-to-head dominance suggest they are likely to overcome this.
• Utah Valley's strong season record and recent wins over Tarleton State could boost their motivation to continue their winning streak.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Utah Valley Wolverines are likely to win this matchup.

Predicted Score: Utah Valley 75, Tarleton State 65

Match Analysis: Tarleton State Texans vs Abilene Christian Wildcats – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: February 27, 2025
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Moody Coliseum (Abilene), Texas

Game Overview

Abilene Christian Wildcats host Tarleton State Texans in a WAC matchup. Both teams are closely matched, with Abilene Christian at 17-10 and Tarleton State at 18-10. Recent performances show Abilene Christian winning 71-60 against Utah Tech, while Tarleton State won 67-57 against UT Arlington.

Key Factors to Consider

• Abilene Christian has shown strong offense with Meredith Mayes and Emma Troxell leading in recent games. Tarleton State's Arieona Rosborough was key in their last win.
• Abilene Christian has had mixed results against Tarleton State, winning some recent matchups but also losing others. Their most recent head-to-head was a win for Abilene Christian.
• No specific injury reports are available for this matchup.
• Home advantage could play a role for Abilene Christian, but both teams have shown resilience on the road.
• Both teams are motivated to secure a strong position in the WAC standings.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

Abilene Christian is slightly favored due to home advantage and recent form.

Predicted Score: Abilene Christian 65, Tarleton State 63

Match Analysis: UT-Arlington Mavericks vs Tarleton State Texans – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: February 22, 2025
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: College Park Center

Game Overview

The UT Arlington Mavericks host the Tarleton State Texans in a Western Athletic Conference (WAC) matchup. UT Arlington is favored, looking to capitalize on their home advantage and recent form against Tarleton State, who are struggling on the road.

Key Factors to Consider

• UT Arlington averages 75.5 points per game, while Tarleton State averages 64.3. The Mavericks have a stronger offense and rebounding, but Tarleton State has shown resilience in close games.
• The teams last met on January 4, with Tarleton State winning 77-74. UT Arlington will aim to improve their ball security after committing 23 turnovers in that game.
• No significant injury reports are available for this matchup.
• The game is played at College Park Center, where UT Arlington has a strong home record. Tarleton State is on a five-game road losing streak.
• UT Arlington seeks to bounce back from recent losses, while Tarleton State aims to break their road slump.

Odds and Predictions

Predicted Outcome

UT Arlington is likely to win due to their home advantage and stronger team statistics.

Predicted Score: UT Arlington 73, Tarleton State 67