Match Analysis: Tarik Khbabez vs Bahram Rajabzadeh – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 6:00 PM UTC
• Location: RTM Stage, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

Game Overview

The GLORY 104 Light Heavyweight title fight between Tarik Khbabez and Bahram Rajabzadeh features two top-tier knockout artists known for their aggressive, explosive styles. Khbabez, the former champion, looks to reclaim his title after losing it earlier in 2025, while Rajabzadeh enters as a dangerous and popular challenger riding a streak of six consecutive knockout wins.

Key Factors to Consider

• Khbabez holds a strong record of 52-12-1 with 28 KOs and has showcased resilience and endurance in fights, while Rajabzadeh is more prolific with a 72-5 record and 64 knockouts, demonstrating relentless finishing ability over recent bouts.
• There are no known previous matchups between Khbabez and Rajabzadeh, making this their first direct encounter.
• No publicly reported injuries for either fighter going into this match, both appear fully fit following recent activity.
• The fight takes place on neutral ground in Rotterdam; Rajabzadeh's nickname and fighting history may energize him, while Khbabez benefits from familiarity with GLORY events and a strong fan base.
• Khbabez is highly motivated to recapture the lost title and solidify his legacy; Rajabzadeh aims to cement himself as a dominant champion following an impressive knockout streak, adding a psychological edge to each fighter's approach.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-140 for Rajabzadeh, +115 for Khbabez	Bahram Rajabzadeh	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	-1.5 at -110 for Rajabzadeh, +1.5 at -110 for Khbabez	Rajabzadeh -1.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds -120, Under 2.5 rounds +100	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Bahram Rajabzadeh to win on the moneyline with a knockout finish.

Predicted Score: Rajabzadeh wins by KO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Tarik Khbabez vs Sergej Maslobojev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-14
• Time: 5:00 PM UTC
• Location: Ahoy, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

Game Overview

The match is a light heavyweight kickboxing/MMA title fight and rematch between reigning champion Tarik Khbabez and former champion Sergej Maslobojev at GLORY 100. Their 2022 bout was won by Maslobojev via split decision in a close, high-volume contest. Khbabez now aims to reclaim the title. Maslobojev lost the belt originally due to a doctor’s stoppage caused by a cut, which deeply affected him emotionally. He has since returned strong to GLORY, looking for redemption. This fight carries high stakes with strong motivation on both sides and is expected to be intensely competitive, possibly requiring an extra round if tied after three rounds.

Key Factors to Consider

• Khbabez has maintained momentum as the reigning champion with solid recent performances, showing resilience and tactical improvements since their previous fight. Maslobojev, after a hiatus due to frustration from losing his title to a cut, has returned with renewed focus and determination, showing his capability across kickboxing and MMA disciplines.
• In their previous encounter at GLORY 2022, Maslobojev secured a split decision win in a very close and competitive fight. Both fighters exchanged significant strikes with Maslobojev slightly edging it on points through volume and movement, but Khbabez's aggression and power posed constant threats.
• No recent injuries have been reported for either fighter leading up to the bout, suggesting both are entering the fight at full health and peak physical condition.
• The fight takes place at Ahoy Rotterdam, a venue familiar for high-profile GLORY events, potentially giving Khbabez a slight home crowd advantage as he is popular in the region. The emotional weight of losing the belt due to a cut still lingers for Maslobojev, which may either motivate him further or add psychological pressure.
• Maslobojev is highly motivated to reclaim the belt and prove himself after his controversial loss by cut stoppage, which deeply affected him personally and professionally. Khbabez is motivated to defend his title and avenge his prior loss, proving he is the rightful champion. Both fighters have strong psychological drives supporting their physical skills.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Tarik Khbabez: -135, Sergej Maslobojev: +115, Draw: +2500	Tarik Khbabez to win	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Khbabez -1.5: -120, Maslobojev +1.5: +100	Khbabez to win by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under	Over 3.5 rounds: -110, Under 3.5 rounds: -110	Over 3.5 rounds (fight likely goes to decision or extra round)	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the close history and current conditions, the fight is expected to be a highly competitive battle possibly going to a decision or even an extra round. Khbabez’s current form and home advantage slightly tilt the edge in his favor to reclaim the title, but Maslobojev’s motivation and technical skill make an upset very possible.

Predicted Score: Khbabez wins via split decision after 3 rounds or extra round, score approximately 29-28