Match Analysis: Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-13
- Time: 4:00 AM UTC
- Location: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee
Game Overview
The UFC heavyweight main event features veteran Derrick Lewis facing undefeated rising star Tallison Teixeira. Teixeira enters as the clear betting favorite based on youth, reach, and finishing ability, while Lewis is considered past his prime but retains significant knockout power.
Key Factors to Consider
- Lewis has 2 wins in his last 6 fights, both by KO/TKO, showing decreased consistency, while Teixeira is undefeated (8-0) with multiple fast finishes, indicating strong form and momentum.
- No prior head-to-head matchups between Lewis and Teixeira; this will be their first encounter.
- No reported significant injuries for either fighter leading into this bout.
- The fight takes place at a home event for Lewis in Nashville, possibly giving him crowd support, but Teixeira's physical advantages may neutralize this.
- Teixeira motivated to maintain undefeated record and climb heavyweight rankings; Lewis motivated by veteran status and knockout legacy, aiming for a major upset.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Derrick Lewis: +215, Tallison Teixeira: -265 | Tallison Teixeira | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Derrick Lewis -5.5: +225, Tallison Teixeira +5.5: -320 | Tallison Teixeira +5.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5: +180, Under 1.5: -238 | Under 1.5 Rounds | ★★★★☆ 78% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tallison Teixeira -15% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 -8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tallison Teixeira by KO/TKO
Predicted Score: Teixeira wins by 1st-round KO