Match Analysis: Talita Alencar vs Ariane Carnelossi – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-01
• Time: 8:10 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

Talita Alencar and Ariane Carnelossi face off at UFC Vegas 110 in the women’s strawweight division. Alencar is a strong grappler with a solid record (6-1-1), known for high takedown defense and striking accuracy, while Carnelossi (15-3-0) brings more UFC experience and Muay Thai striking prowess but has shown some decline in recent activity and defensive metrics.

Key Factors to Consider

• Alencar demonstrates higher defensive efficiency, absorbing fewer strikes per minute (3.77 vs. 4.74) and better strike deflection (53% to 45%), though Carnelossi has slightly higher significant strike output and finishing ability in the UFC.
• No previous direct matchups between Alencar and Carnelossi.
• No publicly reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout.
• Fight taking place at a familiar UFC Apex venue with no notable travel or environmental concerns affecting either fighter.
• Both fighters are motivated: Alencar to prove her dominance in her UFC tenure, Carnelossi aiming to reestablish momentum after limited activity and some losses to top contenders.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Talita Alencar: -225, Ariane Carnelossi: +185	Talita Alencar	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Talita Alencar -3.5: +100, Ariane Carnelossi +3.5: -135	Talita Alencar -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -230, Under 2.5 rounds: +175	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Talita Alencar -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -14%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Talita Alencar at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Talita Alencar to win on the moneyline by decision or submission, maintaining control with superior defense and grappling.

Predicted Score: Talita Alencar wins by decision after three competitive rounds

Match Analysis: Talita Alencar vs Vanessa Demopoulos – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: April 5, 2025
• Time: 10:10 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

This matchup between Talita Alencar and Vanessa Demopoulos promises to be an intriguing clash of grappling skills versus striking and stamina. Both fighters have distinct strengths and weaknesses that could sway the outcome.

Key Factors to Consider

• Vanessa Demopoulos has a more established record and recent form, with a mix of grappling and boxing skills. Talita Alencar is a strong grappler but faces challenges with endurance and inexperience.
• No previous matches between these fighters, making this a fresh contest.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight taking place at the UFC Apex might favor neither athlete specifically, given the neutral venue.
• Both fighters will be highly motivated, with Demopoulos looking to bounce back from a recent loss and Alencar aiming to prove herself against a more experienced opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-110 for both fighters	Vanessa Demopoulos	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 2.5 rounds: -425, Under 2.5 rounds: +325	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Talita Alencar might have an edge early with grappling, but Demopoulos's overall consistency and stamina could lead to a decision victory.

Predicted Score: Vanessa Demopoulos via decision