Match Analysis: Talita Alencar vs Ariane Carnelossi – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-01
• Time: 8:10 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

Talita Alencar faces Ariane Carnelossi in a women's strawweight MMA bout at UFC Vegas 110. Alencar holds a record of 6-1-1 at 115 lbs with a 58" reach and fights orthodox, emphasizing grappling submissions. Carnelossi has a 15-3 record at the same weight with a 61" reach, known for standup striking and higher output of significant strikes per minute.

Key Factors to Consider

• Alencar lands 2.62 significant strikes per minute with 33% accuracy and defends 53% of incoming strikes, allowing 3.77 strikes taken per minute. Carnelossi lands slightly more at 2.87 strikes per minute with 39% accuracy but defends less effectively, blocking 45% of strikes and absorbing 4.74 per minute.
• No prior fights between Talita Alencar and Ariane Carnelossi have been recorded, making this a first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
• Fight hosted at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue with no clear home advantage. Both fighters are experienced but with differing UFC careers; Alencar is newer in the UFC with a strong grappling background, Carnelossi has more fights overall with a mixed martial arts striking emphasis.
• Alencar aims to build momentum with a grappling-based win, likely seeking submission victories early. Carnelossi’s motivation stems from leveraging striking and experience to outpoint or finish Alencar on feet.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Talita Alencar: -230, Ariane Carnelossi: 190	Talita Alencar	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Talita Alencar: -3.5 100, Ariane Carnelossi: +3.5 -135	Talita Alencar by more than 3.5 points (decisive win)	★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -230, Under 2.5: 175	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Talita Alencar -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Talita Alencar at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Talita Alencar is favored due to her grappling prowess and defensive striking. She is projected to win by submission or decision, likely before the third round as pressure from grappling may overwhelm Carnelossi.

Predicted Score: Talita Alencar wins by submission round 2

Match Analysis: Talita Alencar vs Vanessa Demopoulos – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: April 5, 2025
• Time: 10:10 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

This matchup between Talita Alencar and Vanessa Demopoulos promises to be an intriguing clash of grappling skills versus striking and stamina. Both fighters have distinct strengths and weaknesses that could sway the outcome.

Key Factors to Consider

• Vanessa Demopoulos has a more established record and recent form, with a mix of grappling and boxing skills. Talita Alencar is a strong grappler but faces challenges with endurance and inexperience.
• No previous matches between these fighters, making this a fresh contest.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight taking place at the UFC Apex might favor neither athlete specifically, given the neutral venue.
• Both fighters will be highly motivated, with Demopoulos looking to bounce back from a recent loss and Alencar aiming to prove herself against a more experienced opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-110 for both fighters	Vanessa Demopoulos	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 2.5 rounds: -425, Under 2.5 rounds: +325	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Talita Alencar might have an edge early with grappling, but Demopoulos's overall consistency and stamina could lead to a decision victory.

Predicted Score: Vanessa Demopoulos via decision