Match Analysis: Melissa Croden vs Tainara Lisboa – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 8:15 PM UTC
- Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, Canada
Game Overview
This is a UFC Bantamweight prelims bout between Canadian debutant Melissa Croden (6-2-0, 0-0 UFC) and Tainara Lisboa (7-3-0, 1-2 UFC), with Croden making her promotional debut in her home country and Lisboa seeking to rebound from a spotty UFC start[2][4]. Lisboa brings more UFC experience and a technically proficient striking base, while Croden is touted for her well-rounded skill set, including grappling and proven finishing ability. The odds are nearly even, underscoring a competitive matchup in a technical, high-paced division.
Key Factors to Consider
- Croden is considered a rising prospect with a strong regional record and finishes in 5 of her 6 wins, though she is untested at the UFC level[2][7]. Lisboa has faced tougher competition, with mixed results: she has UFC experience, but has struggled to consistently prove herself among ranked opponents[4]. The fight will likely hinge on whether Croden can rise to the UFC's pace and pressure, or if Lisboa's technical edge and experience will show through.
- There is no prior head-to-head history between the two fighters.
- No notable injuries reported for either fighter.
- Croden debuts in Canada, which could provide a modest crowd advantage, but Lisboa has been here before and is not known to be negatively impacted by travel. Both are fighting on prelims, so there is no major co-main or main event pressure[2]. The bout is not specifically impacted by regulatory or promotional factors.
- Croden is highly motivated for her UFC debut and eager to prove herself on the big stage, especially fighting in her home country[5][7]. Lisboa needs a win to secure her place in the UFC after a 1-2 start, so she is fighting for her roster spot.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Melissa Croden -118 / Tainara Lisboa -102 | Tainara Lisboa by decision | 55% (Slight Lean) |
| Spread | Croden -3.5 +140 / Lisboa +3.5 -195 | Lisboa covers +3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 -220 / Under 2.5 +170 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 80% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tainara Lisboa 5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Lisbon's higher level of experience and technical proficiency, she is a slight favorite, but Croden's finishing instincts and home-field advantage make this a true coin-flip. Expect a competitive three-rounder with Lisboa likely edging a decision on the scorecards, given her experience and the step up in class for Croden. If Croden finds an early finish, as she has suggested is her gameplan, it would not be a surprise, but the odds and data tilt slightly toward Lisboa[3][5].
Predicted Score: Tainara Lisboa def. Melissa Croden by unanimous decision (29-28 x3).