Match Analysis: Tagir Ulanbekov vs Kyoji Horiguchi – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 5:15 PM UTC
- Location: ABHA Arena, Doha, Qatar
Game Overview
UFC Fight Night 265 features a flyweight bout between Russia's Tagir Ulanbekov (17-2 MMA record, 6-1 UFC) and Japan's Kyoji Horiguchi (34-5 MMA record, 7-1 UFC). This marks Horiguchi's long-awaited return to the UFC after nearly a decade away, competing primarily in Bellator and Rizin. Ulanbekov enters as a heavy favorite with four consecutive UFC victories, while Horiguchi returns as a former UFC flyweight title challenger and multiple-time world champion across different promotions. The stylistic matchup pits Ulanbekov's wrestling-centric approach against Horiguchi's striking proficiency and experience.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tagir Ulanbekov has demonstrated consistent performance with a 6-1 UFC record and has won four consecutive fights, most recently defeating Azat Maksum via unanimous decision in June 2025. He averages 3.37 significant strikes per minute with 49% accuracy, absorbs 3.36 strikes per minute, and averages 2.94 takedowns every 15 minutes with 38% accuracy and 62% takedown defense. Kyoji Horiguchi brings an extensive professional resume with 34 victories including 20 knockouts/submissions, boasting former championships in Bellator, Rizin (two-time bantamweight champion, one-time flyweight champion), and status as a 2017 Rizin Bantamweight Grand Prix Champion. However, Horiguchi has not competed in the UFC since 2016 and will be making his return after nearly a decade competing at higher weight classes in other organizations. His striking output of 3.60 significant strikes per minute with 45% accuracy and striking defense of 62% remain competitive, but his takedown defense of only 55% presents vulnerability against Ulanbekov's wrestling approach.
- This is a first-time matchup between the two fighters. No direct historical data exists, though stylistic analysis suggests Ulanbekov's wrestling advantage presents significant challenges for Horiguchi, whose primary strength lies in striking rather than grappling defense. Notably, of Horiguchi's five career losses, only one occurred at flyweight (to Demetrius Johnson for the UFC title at age 24), indicating his expertise at higher weight classes.
- No current injuries reported for either fighter. Both athletes are cleared to compete.
- Horiguchi's nine-year absence from the UFC represents a significant variable. While he has remained active in Bellator and Rizin, the UFC's updated competition level, rule variations, and the younger generation of fighters present adjustment challenges. Ulanbekov competes regularly in the UFC and demonstrates comfort with the current competitive landscape. The event takes place in Qatar, a neutral venue for both international competitors.
- Ulanbekov seeks to extend his winning streak and solidify his position in the flyweight rankings. Horiguchi faces immense motivation in his UFC return, aiming to prove his legitimacy against current UFC competition and potentially earn a title shot given his championship pedigree. The narrative of an international legend's return provides significant psychological motivation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ulanbekov -192 / Horiguchi +160 | Tagir Ulanbekov Win | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Ulanbekov -3.5 (120) / Horiguchi +3.5 (-160) | Ulanbekov -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (-298) / Under 2.5 (220) | Under 2.5 Rounds | ★★★☆☆ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tagir Ulanbekov 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 140% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 140% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 63.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tagir Ulanbekov is favored to win via submission or decision, leveraging his superior wrestling, takedown offense (2.94 per 15 minutes vs. 2.00), takedown accuracy (38% vs. 44%), takedown defense (62% vs. 55%), and submission attempt rate (1.6 per 15 minutes vs. 0.7 per 15 minutes). While Horiguchi possesses superior striking output (3.60 vs. 3.37 significant strikes per minute) and striking defense (62%), Ulanbekov's four-consecutive UFC victories and consistent grappling dominance over recent opponents provide a clear path to victory through control. Horiguchi's primary vulnerability—weak takedown defense at 55%—directly matches Ulanbekov's primary strength. However, Horiguchi's experience, championship pedigree, and striking capabilities mean this is not a guaranteed outcome, particularly if the fight remains standing.
Predicted Score: Tagir Ulanbekov defeats Kyoji Horiguchi by Submission (Round 2, 3:45) or Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28). Most probable outcome: Ulanbekov via grappling control and submission in Round 2.