Match Analysis: Amanda Ribas vs Tabatha Ricci – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi

Game Overview

Amanda Ribas faces Tabatha Ricci in a UFC women's flyweight bout. Ribas has a clear physical and technical edge with a 5-inch reach advantage and better strike defense, while Ricci relies heavily on grappling but struggles against top-level wrestlers.

Key Factors to Consider

• Ribas has lost three of her last four but shows strong striking accuracy (39%) and defense (stops 60% of strikes). Ricci lands a similar strike rate but absorbs significantly more (5.29/min). Ricci's recent wins were largely through wrestling, which may be neutralized by Ribas' excellent takedown defense.
• No direct past matchups between Ribas and Ricci; Ricci's closest fight against a fighter of Ribas' caliber ended in TKO loss, suggesting difficulty handling elite opponents like Ribas.
• No reported injuries for either fighter impacting this bout.
• Fight takes place at UFC Abu Dhabi in Etihad Arena; no known travel or acclimatization issues for either fighter.
• Ribas is motivated to rebound from recent losses against high-level competition, whereas Ricci aims to prove she can handle elite opponents but may be overmatched here.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Ribas -200, Ricci +170	Amanda Ribas	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	No explicit -1.5 round spread odds available, inferred from fight style and odds	Amanda Ribas to win by 2+ rounds clear	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds -550, Under 2.5 rounds +400	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Amanda Ribas 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 250%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 250% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 62.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Amanda Ribas to win by KO/TKO

Predicted Score: Amanda Ribas wins by KO/TKO in Round 2