Match Analysis: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks vs Sydney Roosters – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 9:50 AM UTC
- Location: Sharks Stadium, Sydney, Australia
Game Overview
The NRL Finals Week 1 match between the Cronulla Sutherland Sharks and Sydney Roosters is a gripping rematch with high stakes, as the Roosters seek a home semi-final by continuing their undefeated streak while the Sharks aim to rebound from a recent loss and secure a strong finals position. The Roosters enter in impeccable form, having won five of their past six, while the Sharks have also shown strong recent form, notably a 24-6 win over the Bulldogs. The match is set at the Sharks' home ground, adding importance to their performance.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Roosters remain undefeated after 10 games, currently sitting 1st and demonstrating dominant attacking form with players like James Tedesco and Mark Nawaqanitawase contributing heavily. The Sharks, in 4th place, have won 7 of their last 8 games post-bye and are buoyed by a decisive victory over the Bulldogs and the return of key playmaker Nicho Hynes, boosting their creativity and chances.
- Historically, the Roosters have won all three recent encounters against the Sharks, including last yearβs grand final where the Roosters jumped to a strong 24-0 lead despite a strong comeback from the Sharks. The Sharks outscored the Roosters 28-8 in the grand final's second half but fell short overall. In their last meeting this season at Sharks Stadium, the Sharks won 31-18, showing improvement in their head-to-head competitiveness.
- The Sharks have key players back including Nicho Hynes who was cleared to play after a downgraded charge, giving them a significant playmaking edge. The Roosters are fielding the same squad from Round 27, indicating no major injury concerns and full strength.
- The match venue at Sharks Stadium favors the home team, though the Roosters have experience playing under high finals pressure and momentum from a strong winning streak. Weather and referee details are not suggestive of any game-impacting conditions.
- The Sharks have strong motivation to redeem themselves after a prior loss and have recently been on a winning run, aiming to defend home advantage. The Roosters are motivated to maintain their undefeated season momentum and secure a home semi-final, adding intensity to their gameplay.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: 118, Sydney Roosters: -132, Draw: 1800 | Sydney Roosters win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: 2.5 -115, Sydney Roosters: -2.5 -115 | Sydney Roosters -2.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 45.5: -115, Under 45.5: -115 | Under 45.5 points | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sydney Roosters -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 45.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 45.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sydney Roosters are favored to win given their undefeated season, head-to-head dominance, and current momentum, but the Sharks' home advantage and recent strong form make this a closely contested match with potential for an upset.
Predicted Score: Sydney Roosters 24 – 20 Cronulla Sutherland Sharks