Match Analysis: Antonio Carlos Junior vs Sullivan Cauley – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-22
• Time: 1:30 AM UTC
• Location: Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino, Hollywood, Florida

Game Overview

The 2025 PFL Light Heavyweight Tournament Title fight features reigning 2021 PFL Light Heavyweight Champion Antonio Carlos Jr. facing rising star Sullivan Cauley. Both fighters are grapplers with strong records; Antonio Carlos Jr. holds an 18-6 professional MMA record, bringing experience and championship pedigree. Sullivan Cauley, younger and less experienced with an 8-1 record, is known for his finishing skills and aggressive grappling, making this a highly competitive fight in the PFL's main card event.

Key Factors to Consider

• Antonio Carlos Jr. has a notable history as a former PFL champion with consistent performance in high-pressure bouts. Sullivan Cauley has risen rapidly, with a strong finishing rate and favorable recent form, indicating good momentum. Both fighters have demonstrated strong grappling, but Carlos Jr.'s experience in title bouts and five-round fights may give him endurance and strategic advantages.
• This will be the first meeting between Antonio Carlos Jr. and Sullivan Cauley, making tactical adaptation and ability to impose game plans during the fight crucial.
• No current public reports indicate injuries affecting either fighter, suggesting both competitors are healthy and fully prepared.
• The fight takes place at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Florida, with local support slightly favoring Sullivan Cauley, who has regional ties. The fight is the co-main event, increasing pressure but also motivation for both fighters. The lucrative $20 million prize pool adds significant incentive.
• Antonio Carlos Jr. aims to secure his second PFL Light Heavyweight title and solidify his legacy. Sullivan Cauley, as a rising prospect, is motivated to upset the former champion and claim his first major tournament victory, adding a high competitive drive on both sides.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Antonio Carlos Junior: 115, Sullivan Cauley: -145	Sullivan Cauley	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Antonio Carlos Junior: +1.5, Sullivan Cauley: -1.5	Sullivan Cauley to cover -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	over: 2.5 rounds, under: 2.5 rounds	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sullivan Cauley -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Sullivan Cauley at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Antonio Carlos Jr. is favored to win by decision, leveraging experience and endurance, but a finish by Sullivan Cauley via submission or TKO remains a credible threat due to his aggressive style. The fight is likely to go the distance but with competitive action in all rounds.

Predicted Score: Sullivan Cauley wins via unanimous decision after 5 rounds

Match Analysis: Phil Davis vs Sullivan Cauley – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-28
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Wintrust Arena, Chicago

Game Overview

The upcoming light heavyweight MMA bout between Phil Davis and Sullivan Cauley is a highly anticipated semifinal match in the Professional Fighters League (PFL) 2025 tournament. Phil Davis, a veteran fighter known as 'Mr. Wonderful,' boasts extensive experience and a strong grappling background. Sullivan Cauley enters the fight with momentum after a first-round TKO win in his last bout, marking his return from injury with a dominant performance. With Cauley’s aggressive style and history of early finishes contrasting Davis's technical and control-oriented approach, this fight presents an intriguing stylistic clash.

Key Factors to Consider

• Phil Davis has a deep MMA career marked by high-level wrestling and control tactics, often winning by decision or late finishes. Sullivan Cauley has an explosive start style with seven of his eight professional MMA fights ending in the first round, showcasing powerful striking and finishing ability early in the match. Cauley’s recent first-round TKO win after returning from ACL injury demonstrates effective recovery and form. Davis’s consistent performances against top competition lend him reliability over longer fights.
• There is no recorded previous matchup between Phil Davis and Sullivan Cauley, making this encounter their first head-to-head fight. Hence, data from direct competition is unavailable and the prediction must rely on comparative career stats and recent form.
• Sullivan Cauley recently recovered from a torn ACL and made a successful return with a first-round TKO victory, which shows strong recovery and readiness. There are no reported current injuries for Phil Davis, who appears physically fit for competition.
• The match takes place at Wintrust Arena in Chicago, where crowd support is expected to be neutral or slightly favor Davis due to his veteran status. Cauley has momentum from recent wins, potentially providing psychological edge. The PFL tournament setting adds pressure and high stakes, likely motivating both fighters maximally.
• Cauley is highly motivated to capitalize on his return to top form and advance in the PFL light heavyweight tournament after an impressive comeback win. Phil Davis, as a seasoned competitor and former champion, is motivated to leverage experience and tactical prowess to advance to the finals, preserving his reputation and career legacy.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Phil Davis: -260, Sullivan Cauley: 200	Phil Davis to win	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Phil Davis -1.5	Phil Davis to win by at least 2 rounds or clear margin	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds -110 / Under 1.5 rounds -110	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Phil Davis -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Phil Davis at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Cauley’s striking explosiveness and first-round finishing ability combined with his recent injury comeback win, he has a strong chance to start fast and attempt a quick finish. However, Phil Davis’s extensive experience, wrestling dominance, and ability to control fights and withstand early aggression gives him a significant advantage in a longer fight scenario. The prediction favors Phil Davis by decision or late stoppage with Cauley posing a serious early threat.

Predicted Score: Phil Davis wins via decision or late round stoppage, fight lasts 3 to 4 rounds

Match Analysis: Sullivan Cauley vs Marcelo Nunes – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-01
• Time: 11:30 PM UTC
• Location: Not Specified

Game Overview

This match between Sullivan Cauley and Marcelo Nunes is part of the PFL tournament, offering an interesting clash of styles. Cauley, known for his aggressive approach, faces Nunes, a skilled Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner.

Key Factors to Consider

• Sullivan Cauley has a record of 6-1-0, while Marcelo Nunes stands at 11-2-0. Both fighters have solid records, but Nunes' experience might give him an edge.
• There is no previous head-to-head data available for these fighters.
• No recent injury reports have been noted for either fighter.
• Their fighting styles will significantly influence the match. Cauley's aggression against Nunes' grappling skills.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, as this is a crucial match in the PFL tournament.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-170 for Sullivan Cauley, 140 for Marcelo Nunes	Sullivan Cauley	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5: 150, Under 1.5: -180	Under 1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sullivan Cauley 3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Sullivan Cauley at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sullivan Cauley is favored to win given his more aggressive style and favorable moneyline odds.

Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Sullivan Cauley due to his aggressive fighting style potentially leading to a decision victory.