Match Analysis: Phil Davis vs Sullivan Cauley – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-28
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Wintrust Arena, Chicago
Game Overview
The upcoming MMA light heavyweight semifinal bout between Phil Davis and Sullivan Cauley is set to be a highly competitive matchup at Wintrust Arena, Chicago. Phil Davis, an experienced 40-year-old veteran, faces the rising star Cauley, who is riding a wave of momentum with his recent first-round TKO win and an impressive 7-1 professional record. Cauley is known for ending all his fights in the first round, demonstrating explosive early fight power, while Davis brings championship-level experience and technical ground control to the cage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Phil Davis has a wealth of experience with a solid record in light heavyweight MMA fights, known for his wrestling and grappling abilities. Sullivan Cauley, meanwhile, is on an upward trajectory with a strong streak of first-round finishes and has recently secured a swift TKO win, indicating powerful striking and finishing ability. Davis’ consistency contrasts with Cauley’s aggressive finishing style.
- There is no publicly available record of a previous head-to-head encounter between Phil Davis and Sullivan Cauley, making this their first competitive meeting in professional MMA.
- Sullivan Cauley recently returned from a torn ACL injury sustained prior to August 2023 but appears fully recovered, demonstrated by a dominant first-round TKO in his last fight. Phil Davis has no recent injury reports affecting his performance.
- The fight takes place in Chicago's Wintrust Arena with the PFL semifinals spotlight, potentially amplifying the stakes and motivation for both fighters. Cauley's home state advantage is not present, whereas Davis is well accustomed to high-pressure championship settings.
- Cauley is highly motivated to continue his breakout run in the PFL after returning from injury and securing a first-round finish that propelled him to the semifinals. Davis, with his experience and veteran status, is motivated to leverage his tactical fighting style to secure another title run and prove his longevity in the sport.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Phil Davis: -260, Sullivan Cauley: 200 | Phil Davis | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Phil Davis: -1.5, Sullivan Cauley: +1.5 | Phil Davis covers -1.5 rounds (win by decision or stoppage beyond round 1) | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: -120, Under 1.5 rounds: 100 | Under 1.5 rounds (fight ends early, likely due to Cauley’s history of first-round finishes) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Phil Davis -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Phil Davis at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Phil Davis is favored to win by decision or late stoppage due to his experience and grappling control, but Sullivan Cauley’s aggressive early striking presents a significant threat of an upset with a first-round finish.
Predicted Score: Phil Davis wins via decision or late stoppage at round 3 or 4