Match Analysis: Subriel Matias vs Alberto Puello – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-12
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Louis Armstrong Stadium, Queens, New York
Game Overview
This WBC super lightweight title bout features reigning champion Alberto Puello defending his title against heavy-handed contender Subriel Matias. Puello enters undefeated with a technically sound southpaw style, while Matias is known for his relentless power and knockout ability. The fight promises a clash of styles: Puello's defensive, movement-focused boxing versus Matias' aggressive pressure and power punching.
Key Factors to Consider
- Puello has an undefeated 24-0 record with 10 KOs and is ranked #2 by The Ring, showing consistent technical skill and ring IQ. Matias holds a 22-2 record with 22 KOs, highlighting his dangerous power punch and finishing ability. Puello's experience and defensive skills contrast with Matias' high volume and power.
- No previous head-to-head encounter is documented; however, Matias holds power and knockout success advantages, whereas Puello's ring experience and technical style offer a tactical edge.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
- The fight takes place at Louis Armstrong Stadium in New York, a neutral venue but with Matias previously fighting and training in Puerto Rico and Puello from the Dominican Republic. Puello's camp under Ismael Salas is known for strategic game plans.
- Puello aims to solidify his reign as a world champion and keep his undefeated streak, emphasizing outthinking and outboxing Matias. Matias is highly motivated to dethrone Puello and prove his power and dominance in the division.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alberto_Puello: -110, Subriel_Matias: -120 | Subriel Matias | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Spread | Matias -1.5: -105, Puello +1.5: -115 | Matias -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 10.5: -190, Under 10.5: 160 | Under 10.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Subriel Matias -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 10.5 69% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 10.5 at 69% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 43.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the styles and data, Puello's movement and technical boxing likely will neutralize Matias' power to an extent, but Matias' relentless pressure and 100% KO ratio mean he always has a significant chance to finish the fight. Prediction leans toward a close decision win for Puello, with a notable chance of an upset via late-round stoppage by Matias.
Predicted Score: Subriel Matias wins by late-round TKO or unanimous decision