Match Analysis: Long Xiao vs Su Young You – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 7:35 AM UTC
• Location: Shanghai Indoor Stadium, Xuhui District, China

Game Overview

This Bantamweight UFC Fight Night preliminary card features Long Xiao, a skilled striker and grappler with a 27-8 record aiming to rebound after a recent split decision loss, versus Su Young You, an undefeated UFC talent with a 15-3 record known for her grappling dominance and quick finishes. Su Young is the betting favorite given her flawless UFC debut streak and recent form.

Key Factors to Consider

• Su Young You is on an undefeated UFC streak since November 2024 with multiple first-round finishes, demonstrating superior grappling and agility. Long Xiao, while strong in striking and resilient, comes off a split decision loss in June and has fewer finishes recently.
• No direct previous fights documented between the two, making this a fresh tactical contest.
• No reported injuries for either fighter going into the bout, indicating both are at full capacity.
• Fight taking place in Shanghai Indoor Stadium, favoring Long Xiao geographically but with no notable home advantage impact reported.
• Long Xiao aims to rebound and restore momentum after his recent loss, while Su Young You looks to extend her undefeated stretch in the UFC, suggesting high motivation on both sides but stronger momentum on You’s side.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Long Xiao: +110, Su Young You: -130	Su Young You	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Su Young You -1.5 rounds: -140, Long Xiao +1.5 rounds: +120	Su Young You -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -300, Under 2.5 rounds: +240	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Su Young You -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 128%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 128% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 53.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Su Young You to win via moneyline

Predicted Score: Su Young You wins by submission or decision in 3 rounds

Match Analysis: A.J. Cunningham vs Su Young You – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-15
• Time: 8:10 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Game Overview

Su Young You faces A.J. Cunningham in a highly anticipated MMA bout at UFC Vegas 104. You is favored due to his grappling prowess, while Cunningham relies on high-volume striking.

Key Factors to Consider

• Su Young You excels in grappling with 4.67 takedowns per 15 minutes and a 72% striking defense. A.J. Cunningham has a high striking volume but struggles defensively, absorbing 11.90 significant strikes per minute.
• There is no prior head-to-head matchup between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place at the UFC Apex, which may favor neither fighter due to its neutral environment.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, but You's dominant style may give him an edge in confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-625 (Su Young You), +455 (A.J. Cunningham)	Su Young You	★★★★☆ 85%
Over_under	Over 2.5: -115, Under 2.5: -115	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Su Young You is likely to win by decision, leveraging his grappling skills to control the fight.

Predicted Score: Su Young You wins by unanimous decision.