Match Analysis: Su Mudaerji vs Kevin Borjas – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 10:45 AM UTC
• Location: Shanghai Indoor Stadium, Shanghai, China

Game Overview

The UFC Flyweight bout between Su Mudaerji and Kevin Borjas is scheduled for three rounds at UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang, held in Shanghai Indoor Stadium. Su Mudaerji, known as 'The Tibetan Eagle,' enters with a 17-7 record, and Kevin Borjas holds a 10-3 record. Both fighters have shown competitive skill sets in the flyweight division with no prior head-to-head matches.

Key Factors to Consider

• Su Mudaerji fights out of Sacramento, California with Enbo Fight Club and has a strong finish rate, mainly by KO (58.8%). Kevin Borjas' recent form is mixed with a 1-2 record in his last three fights.
• No previous head-to-head bouts between Su Mudaerji and Kevin Borjas exist, making this match-up fresh and unpredictable.
• No specific injury reports were found for either fighter leading into this bout.
• The fight takes place in Shanghai, which may favor Su Mudaerji as he is Chinese-born and may have more local support, though he trains in the U.S. Travel and acclimatization could marginally affect Borjas.
• Both fighters are competing to climb the UFC Flyweight rankings. Su Mudaerji, with a higher profile and more UFC exposure, may have a slight motivational edge to solidify his position.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Kevin Borjas: 140, Su Mudaerji: -166	Su Mudaerji	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Kevin Borjas: 3.5 @ -195, Su Mudaerji: -3.5 @ 140	Su Mudaerji covers the -3.5 spread	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -270, Under 2.5: 200	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Su Mudaerji -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 86%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 86% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 43% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Su Mudaerji is favored to win based on stronger recent performance, finishing ability, local advantage, and betting odds. Kevin Borjas remains a contender but may find it challenging to overcome Mudaerji's pressure and striking power.

Predicted Score: Su Mudaerji wins by decision or KO within 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Su Mudaerji vs Mitch Raposo – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: April 12, 2025
• Time: 11:10 PM UTC
• Location: Kaseya Center, Miami, USA

Game Overview

Su Mudaerji and Mitch Raposo face off in a crucial flyweight bout at UFC 314. Mudaerji seeks to end a three-fight losing streak, while Raposo seeks redemption after his UFC debut loss. Both fighters are motivated but come with different strategies.

Key Factors to Consider

• Su Mudaerji has a more extensive UFC experience but has struggled against higher-level opponents. Mitch Raposo has shown growth in his recent regional wins but faces a challenge adapting to UFC competition.
• No prior matches between the two fighters. The bout is expected to test Raposo's new striking approach against Mudaerji's size and reach.
• No reported significant injuries for either fighter.
• Fight dynamics could be influenced by the crowd and environment at the Kaseya Center.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to achieve a win; Mudaerji needs to halt his losing streak, and Raposo aims to prove himself in the UFC.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Su Mudaerji -175, Mitch Raposo +150	Su Mudaerji to win, but low confidence due to Raposo's potential upside.	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 2.5 -155, Under 2.5 +125	Fight not going the distance (Under 2.5)	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Su Mudaerji -14%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 35%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 35% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mudaerji is marginally favored due to his UFC experience, but the prediction leans towards this fight not going the distance due to both fighters' desperation.

Predicted Score: Not applicable for MMA fights.