Match Analysis: Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-11
- Time: 9:45 PM UTC
- Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Game Overview
Lucas 'Fenomeno' Rocha (17-2-0, Brazil, 25 yrs, 5'3", 64" reach) faces Stewart 'Kakamora' Nicoll (8-1-0, Australia, 29 yrs, 5'5", 65" reach) in the UFC Rio preliminary flyweight card. Both are high-level orthodox fighters with strong grappling backgrounds, but both are coming off recent losses—Rocha via submission to Clayton Carpenter and Nicoll via decision to Jesus Santos Aguilar. The bout is expected to be closely contested, with both fighters known for technical ground skills and submission threats[1][5][6].
Key Factors to Consider
- Rocha possesses a more extensive record and more UFC experience, having fought top-tier competition. His offensive output (2.00 significant strikes/min, 44% accuracy) is modest, but he absorbs a high volume (4.48/min) and is vulnerable defensively (39% defense). Nicoll, while a top prospect, lands more strikes (3.02/min, 47% accuracy) and is highly defensively efficient (1.13 absorbed/min, 40% defense). This suggests Nicoll is the sharper and more defensively responsible striker. Neither is a noted knockout artist; both rely on grappling, submissions, and tactical fighting, with deep jiu-jitsu pedigrees[1][5].
- No prior meetings between the two fighters[4].
- No public injury reports for either fighter heading into the fight.
- The fight is in Rocha's home country (Brazil), which could offer a slight crowd and judging bias in a close round. Both fighters are coming off professional losses; neither has a momentum advantage[1][4][5].
- Rocha and Nicoll are both under pressure to rebound and maintain their status in the flyweight division. Rocha has the home crowd, but Nicoll is fighting for continued relevance after his first career loss[1][5].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rocha -118 (1.85), Nicoll -102 (1.98) | Stewart Nicoll by decision | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Spread | Rocha -3.5 (+105), Nicoll +3.5 (-140) | Nicoll to cover (+3.5) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (+135), Under 2.5 (-175) | Under 2.5 (fight goes the distance) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Stewart Nicoll 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 -6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Stewart Nicoll at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
This is an extremely close matchup—a pure pick’em fight. Rocha is more experienced and battle-tested, but Nicoll is sharper, more defensively sound, and has a slight reach advantage. The slight edge goes to Stewart Nicoll for sharper striking and better defensive metrics, but given the home field and Rocha's high-pressure style, it could easily tip the other way in a grappling-heavy match[1][5]. Expect a tactical, grinding fight with a narrow decision either way.
Predicted Score: Stewart Nicoll by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)