Match Analysis: Steven Nguyen vs Mohammad Yahya – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-26
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Game Overview
Featherweight UFC bout between surging favorite Steven Nguyen and tough underdog Mohammad Yahya. Bookmakers strongly favor Nguyen, but expected high pace and Yahya's durability could make it a competitive fight.
Key Factors to Consider
- Steven Nguyen is heavily favored, reflecting strong recent performances and a higher profile in the division. In contrast, Mohammad Yahya faces a steep climb as a clear underdog, though he is known for his toughness and often makes fights competitive.
- No direct head-to-head data available. This is the first meeting between the two.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
- The fight takes place in Abu Dhabi, which can introduce variables like travel, time zone, and environment, but there is no clear home edge for either fighter. Both are accustomed to international bouts.
- Both fighters are likely highly motivated—Nguyen to solidify his contention status, and Yahya as a significant underdog looking to make a statement.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nguyen -400 / Yahya +300 | Steven Nguyen | ★★★★☆ 82% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 -200 / Under 1.5 +160 | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 85% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Steven Nguyen -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 31% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 61% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Steven Nguyen wins by decision after a hard-fought, high-paced contest. Yahya’s durability keeps him in the fight, but Nguyen’s technical edge and volume earn the nod from the judges.
Predicted Score: Steven Nguyen by unanimous decision (29-28 x3)