Match Analysis: Anthony Guarascio vs Steven Asplund – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-09
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
Game Overview
The main event heavyweight bout at Dana White's Contender Series Week 5 (September 9, 2025) features undefeated Anthony Guarascio (3-0-0) facing Steven Asplund (5-1-0), who is stepping in on short notice. Both fighters have displayed strong striking and finishing capabilities, with Guarascio having more submission wins and Asplund more KO/TKO victories.
Key Factors to Consider
- Guarascio fights out of Gracie Tampa West under coach Tom Desantis with a 3-0 undefeated record, demonstrating a balanced finishing style with 2 KOs and 1 submission. Asplund holds a 5-1 record with a high KO/TKO finish rate (4 KOs), showing aggressive striking power but less submission experience.
- No prior head-to-head matchups between Guarascio and Asplund have occurred, making this a fresh encounter with styles to be tested directly.
- No publicly reported injuries afflicting either fighter ahead of the match have been disclosed.
- Asplund is taking the bout on short notice, which could affect his preparation and stamina but may increase his motivation. The fight is held at the UFC APEX, a familiar venue for both competitors.
- Asplund expressed excitement and motivation, considering this fight a significant opportunity to showcase his skills on a major platform. Guarascio, undefeated, aims to maintain his perfect record and continue his progression within the heavyweight division.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Anthony Guarascio: -175, Steven Asplund: 150 | Anthony Guarascio to win | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Anthony Guarascio: -1.5, Steven Asplund: +1.5 | Anthony Guarascio to win by at least 2 rounds or via stoppage | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: 165, Under 1.5 rounds: -190 | Under 1.5 rounds (a shorter fight expected) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Anthony Guarascio -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 -7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Anthony Guarascio at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Anthony Guarascio is favored to win due to his undefeated record, tactical balance, and slightly better-conditioned preparation compared to short-notice entrant Steven Asplund. However, Asplund's power striking and motivation make the fight competitive with potential for a finish on either side.
Predicted Score: Guarascio wins by TKO in round 2