Match Analysis: Anthony Guarascio vs Steven Asplund – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-10
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
Game Overview
Heavyweight MMA bout between undefeated Anthony Guarascio (3-0) and highly experienced Steven Asplund (5-1) on Dana White's Contender Series, featuring a contrast in age, reach, and fighting styles.
Key Factors to Consider
- Guarascio is undefeated with a perfect 3-0 record, showing heavy striking power with 2 KO/TKO wins and a submission, while Asplund has more fights (5-1) with a majority of wins by KO/TKO (4), but one loss and less finishing diversity.
- This is their first recorded head-to-head matchup with no prior encounters.
- No reported significant injuries for either fighter; Asplund took the fight on short notice but appears healthy and motivated.
- Fight held at UFC Apex with no travel disadvantage; Asplund’s short-notice call might affect conditioning but boosts his motivation.
- Asplund expressed high motivation, calling this the opportunity he’s always wanted, which could boost performance; Guarascio seeks to maintain undefeated status and impress on Contender Series.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -175, away: 150 | Anthony Guarascio | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Guarascio -1.5: +150, Asplund +1.5: -180 | Guarascio -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | over 1.5: +177, under 1.5: -205 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Anthony Guarascio 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 -11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Anthony Guarascio at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Anthony Guarascio to win by moneyline, with under 1.5 rounds expectable due to Guarascio’s finishing tendency.
Predicted Score: Anthony Guarascio wins by KO/TKO in round 1 or early round 2