Match Analysis: Kyle Pufahl vs Steve Collins – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-21
• Time: 12:30 AM UTC
• Location: Seneca Niagara Falls Resort and Casino, Niagara Falls, New York, USA

Game Overview

This lightweight bout at LFA 223 features New England's Kyle Pufahl (6-2) against Illinois' undefeated Steve Collins (5-0). Pufahl is a natural finisher with four first-round KO/TKO wins, but recently showed resilience by overcoming a rib injury and winning a decision over Kevin Carrier. Collins is known for his relentless pace and highlight-reel slam KO at LFA 210, with finishes in two of his last three fights. Both fighters are on the rise, with Pufahl seeking a breakthrough and Collins aiming to maintain his undefeated record.

Key Factors to Consider

• Pufahl has a strong striking record, with 4 of his 6 wins coming by KO/TKO, all in the first round. He recently went the distance against Kevin Carrier, showing improved durability and adaptability. Collins is 5-0 with finishes in 2 of his last 3 fights, including a spectacular slam KO. He is known for his relentless pace and pressure.
• No previous fights between Pufahl and Collins. This is their first meeting.
• Pufahl suffered a popped rib in his last fight but fought through it and won by decision. No reported injuries for Collins.
• The fight takes place in a neutral venue, Niagara Falls, New York. Both fighters are well-rested and have been preparing specifically for this matchup.
• Pufahl is motivated to prove himself after overcoming injury and wants to secure a high-profile win to boost his career. Collins is motivated to maintain his undefeated record and continue his rise in the lightweight division.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Kyle Pufahl: 450, Steve Collins: -600	Steve Collins	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -145, Under 1.5: 125	Over 1.5	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Steve Collins -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 10%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Steve Collins is favored due to his undefeated record and recent highlight-reel performances. However, Pufahl's striking power and recent resilience make him a dangerous opponent. The fight is likely to be competitive, with Collins having a slight edge in terms of overall performance and momentum.

Predicted Score: Steve Collins wins by decision or TKO in the second round

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Match Analysis: Max Metzgar vs Steve Collins – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-15
• Time: 11:30 PM UTC
• Location: LFA 214, Sioux Falls, SD

Game Overview

This LFA lightweight bout features undefeated fighters Max Metzgar (5-0) and Steve Collins (5-0) facing off at LFA 214 in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Both fighters bring undefeated records, but contrasting styles and confidence levels create an intriguing matchup where Metzgar boasts unbeaten dominance and confidence while Collins emphasizes striking power and grappling as a surprise element.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both fighters are undefeated with 5-0 records, showing strong performance trajectories. Metzgar has never been dropped or taken down in his 12 fights, demonstrating solid defensive and offensive skills. Collins has two finishes by KO/TKO, including a notable slam KO, showcasing his striking and wrestling power.
• No prior fight history exists between Metzgar and Collins, making this their first encounter. Both fighters express confidence, with Metzgar dismissive of Collins' skill level and Collins warning of a rude awakening especially in striking exchanges.
• No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the match.
• The fight takes place at LFA 214 in Sioux Falls, SD. Motivation appears heightened given both fighters are undefeated and seeking to maintain perfect records, likely impacting mental preparedness. Collins has publicly stated intentions to use wrestling as a secret weapon, while Metzgar plans to exploit superior overall skill and not be taken down.
• Metzgar is confident, seizing this fight as a step toward bigger fights (e.g., UFC opportunities). Collins is motivated to prove his wrestling and striking can overcome Metzgar's perceived superiority and expects to catch Metzgar off guard.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Max Metzgar: -150, Steve Collins: +130, Draw: +2500	Max Metzgar	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Max Metzgar -1.5: -110, Steve Collins +1.5: -110	Max Metzgar -1.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -120, Under 2.5 rounds: +100	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Max Metzgar is predicted to win by decision or late finish due to his strong unbeaten record, resilience, and technical edge, though Collins' power and wrestling skills could make the bout competitive.

Predicted Score: Metzgar wins by unanimous decision or 3rd round TKO