Match Analysis: Stephen Erceg vs Ode Osbourne – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

Stephen Erceg faces Ode Osbourne in a bantamweight UFC fight at UFC Vegas 109. Erceg is favored heavily on the moneyline, with a more precise striking rate and defense. The fight features contrasting styles with Erceg’s orthodox stance and Osbourne’s southpaw approach, both with solid striking records but Erceg showing superior statistical metrics.

Key Factors to Consider

• Erceg has a 12-4 record, demonstrating consistent performance with 4.45 significant strikes landed per minute at 46% accuracy and 52% strike defense. Osbourne’s 13-8 record includes a respectable 3.20 strikes landed per minute at 40% accuracy but poorer defense at 46%.
• No direct prior matchups between Erceg and Osbourne, making this a stylistic matchup based on their respective fight metrics and recent form.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout, suggesting both are in optimal physical condition.
• Both fighters are competing in the UFC Apex in Las Vegas; no travel or venue disadvantage is evident. Erceg’s younger age (30 vs 33) and recent betting market support suggest higher confidence in his current form.
• Erceg may have higher motivation to maintain/improve ranking given his favored status and younger career stage. Osbourne, as the underdog, may be motivated to upset but lacks supporting recent momentum indicators.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Erceg -600, Osbourne +425	Stephen Erceg	★★★★☆ 82%
Spread	Not explicitly provided for spread, typical UFC spread -1.5 rounds for Erceg around -150	Stephen Erceg -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 1.5 -160, Under 1.5 +130	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Stephen Erceg -10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 38%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 38% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Stephen Erceg to win by decision

Predicted Score: Erceg wins by decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Brandon Moreno vs Stephen Erceg – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: March 29, 2025
• Time: 1:45 AM UTC
• Location: Arena CDMX, Mexico City, Mexico

Game Overview

Brandon Moreno, the former two-time UFC Flyweight Champion, faces off against Steve Erceg in a flyweight bout. Moreno seeks to maintain his position in the rankings, while Erceg aims to rebound from recent losses.

Key Factors to Consider

• Brandon Moreno is well-rounded with solid wrestling and grappling skills, having recently defeated Amir Albazi. Steve Erceg is coming off two consecutive losses, including a first-round stoppage. Moreno's consistency and recent performance give him an edge.
• The two fighters have no recorded head-to-head matches. Moreno's experience and skillset are expected to dominate.
• There have been no reported injuries for either fighter leading into this match.
• The fight taking place in Mexico City may provide an additional motivation for Brandon Moreno, who will fight in front of his home crowd.
• Brandon Moreno is highly motivated to maintain his ranking and move towards another title shot. Steve Erceg is under pressure to win following two consecutive losses.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-245 for Brandon Moreno, +200 for Steve Erceg	Brandon Moreno	★★★★☆ 80%
Spread	-5.5 for Brandon Moreno at 100, +5.5 for Steve Erceg at -140	Brandon Moreno -5.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over_under	Over 4.5 at -238, Under 4.5 at 180	Over 4.5	★★★☆☆ 55%

Predicted Outcome

Brandon Moreno is likely to win this match due to his superior skillset and experience.

Predicted Score: Brandon Moreno by unanimous decision or late-stage stoppage.