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St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Penrith Panthers Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Penrith Panthers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 5:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney, Australia

Game Overview

The match features the St George Illawarra Dragons hosting the Penrith Panthers in a Round 27 NRL clash. Penrith is heavily favored given their championship credentials and dominant recent form, while the Dragons are underdogs playing at home. Despite this, the Dragons' home ground and desperate form create potential for an upset in a possibly close, defensive contest.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Penrith Panthers are superior on paper with strong recent performances and championship experience. The Dragons, ranked lower in power rankings, have a tougher season but thrive as underdogs especially at home. Both teams exhibit contrasting strengths; Panthers dominate attack while Dragons rely on defensive resilience.
  • Penrith traditionally dominates in head-to-head encounters, reflected in their clearer favorite status and superior recent results versus the Dragons. However, the Dragons have previously caused shocks at home, particularly at WIN Stadium, producing tightly contested matches.
  • No specific injury information is available from the data provided. This is a limitation when gauging final team strength.
  • The match venue, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium in Sydney, is neutral or slightly favoring the Dragons geographically but represents a significant challenge for the Panthers. Crowd support and home conditions could impact game flow and momentum.
  • Dragons are highly motivated as underdogs to salvage pride late in the season, which could spur a tough defensive effort. Penrith seeks to consolidate their superiority and maintain momentum in pursuit of the premiership, fueling their confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Penrith Panthers: -575, St George Illawarra Dragons: 410, Draw: 2500 St George Illawarra Dragons win ★★☆☆☆ 44%
Spread Penrith Panthers -15.5: -120, St George Illawarra Dragons +15.5: -110 Penrith Panthers cover -15.5 points ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 49.5: -115, Under 49.5: -115 Under 49.5 points ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers 188%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 49.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Penrith Panthers at 188% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 45.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Despite Penrith Panthers being strong favorites, analytics suggest a close defensive game possibly ending in a narrow win for the Dragons at home, representing a potential upset with notable value for underdog bettors.

Predicted Score: Dragons 20 – Panthers 24


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St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Manly Warringah Sea Eagles – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-30
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney, Australia

Game Overview

The Round 26 NRL Telstra Premiership match features the St George Illawarra Dragons hosting the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles at Jubilee Stadium. Both teams are seeking valuable wins to improve their standings late in the season. The Dragons are placed 13th while the Sea Eagles hold 10th in the ladder, making this a crucial matchup for both sides as they look to build momentum for the final rounds.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Manly Sea Eagles come into the match after a victory over the Dolphins, maintaining the same squad with no changes, indicating stability and form. The Dragons' previous game was against South Sydney, but detailed recent performance data is limited here. Manly’s position is higher (10th) than the Dragons (13th), potentially reflecting better recent outcomes.
  • Historical data from the 2025 season and previous encounters have been competitive, with no significant dominance by either team indicated in the available sources. The even moneyline odds suggest the matchup is expected to be closely contested.
  • No reported changes or notable injuries were cited for the Manly Sea Eagles, as their squad remains unchanged after their last win. There is no explicit injury information for the Dragons in the available data.
  • The match takes place at Jubilee Stadium with expected large crowds and potential logistical challenges including heavy traffic and limited parking. Conditions at the venue are standard with cashless transactions and restrictions on certain items, but those factors should not adversely affect the teams directly.
  • Both teams are motivated by their current ladder positions with Manly aiming to solidify a higher ranking and the Dragons fighting to climb the table. Manly's recent win provides momentum, while the Dragons need a strong performance at home to regain confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline manly: -109, dragons: -109, draw: 2000 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles to win ★★★☆☆ 56%
Spread manly: -1.5 105, dragons: 1.5 -130 Manly Sea Eagles to cover -1.5 spread ★★★☆☆ 54%
Over/under over: 48.5 -115, under: 48.5 -115 Over 48.5 total points ★★★☆☆ 52%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 7%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 48.5 -3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Manly’s recent stable squad and modest superiority in ladder position, combined with balanced odds, the prediction leans slightly towards Manly Warringah Sea Eagles winning a close game at Jubilee Stadium.

Predicted Score: Manly Sea Eagles 26 – 22 St George Illawarra Dragons


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South Sydney Rabbitohs vs. St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: South Sydney Rabbitohs vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-21
  • Time: 9:50 AM UTC
  • Location: Accor Stadium, Sydney, Australia

Game Overview

The Round 25 NRL match between South Sydney Rabbitohs and St George Illawarra Dragons is scheduled for August 21, 2025, at Accor Stadium. This clash features two competitive teams with a closely contested history in the 2025 season. South Sydney enters with recent momentum, narrowly defeating St George Illawarra earlier in the year in a Round 2 match with a final score of 25-24. Both teams are battling for a strong position late in the season under experienced coaches Wayne Bennett (Rabbitohs) and Shane Flanagan (Dragons). The game is expected to be tight given their form and past encounters.

Key Factors to Consider

  • South Sydney Rabbitohs have displayed consistent form in 2025, recently winning against Parramatta in Round 24 and showing resilience in close encounters including a 1-point victory over the Dragons in Round 2. St George Illawarra Dragons are competitive but have had mixed results, evidenced by their Round 24 performance against the Warriors and close losses to South Sydney. Home advantage favors South Sydney at Accor Stadium.
  • In their 2025 Round 2 encounter, South Sydney narrowly defeated St George Illawarra Dragons 25-24, indicating a very close matchup historically this season. Their encounters tend to be low-scoring and tightly contested.
  • No explicit recent injury reports are indicated for either team that would markedly affect starting lineups. Past season injury notes indicated some player changes but no confirmed significant injury impact for this match currently.
  • The game is played in Sydney at Accor Stadium, providing home ground advantage for South Sydney. Weather and other conditions are unknown but assumed typical for Sydney in August (winter) which usually means dry, cool playing conditions favoring structured, tactical gameplay.
  • With the season nearing its conclusion, both teams are motivated to secure crucial points for finals qualification or positioning. South Sydney’s recent wins and slightly better form boost their confidence, while St George Illawarra will seek redemption from their narrow earlier loss and to maintain playoff hopes.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline South Sydney Rabbitohs: 104, St George Illawarra Dragons: -120, Draw: 2000 St George Illawarra Dragons (due to slightly better bookmaker odds) ★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread South Sydney Rabbitohs: 1.5 -115, St George Illawarra Dragons: -1.5 -115 St George Illawarra Dragons to cover -1.5 spread ★★★☆☆ 53%
Over/under Over: 44.5 -110, Under: 44.5 -120 Under 44.5 points ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline St George Illawarra Dragons -7%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 44.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 44.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

South Sydney Rabbitohs are favored to win narrowly due to home advantage, recent form, and a psychological edge from their close Round 2 win. Expect a closely fought game decided by a small margin.

Predicted Score: South Sydney Rabbitohs 22 – 24 St George Illawarra Dragons


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New Zealand Warriors vs. St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: New Zealand Warriors vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-15
  • Time: 8:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Mount Smart Stadium, Auckland, New Zealand

Game Overview

The New Zealand Warriors face off against the St George Illawarra Dragons in Round 24 of the 2025 NRL season. The match is set at the Warriors' home ground. Both teams have shown mixed form this season, but the Warriors possess a stronger home advantage and a better season record, positioning them as favorites for this fixture.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Warriors have demonstrated consistent performances leading up to Round 24, boasting a higher win percentage and stronger offensive and defensive stats compared to the Dragons. The Dragons have struggled against top-tier teams and have a lower recent win rate.
  • Recent history and statistical simulations indicate the Warriors hold an edge with a 65% win probability in head-to-head clashes against the Dragons for this season, supported by historical data and computer simulations.
  • Current publicly available information does not indicate any major injuries to key players on either side ahead of this match, suggesting both teams are likely to field close to full-strength lineups.
  • The game being held at Mount Smart Stadium provides the Warriors with home-ground advantage, including familiar playing conditions and local fan support. No significant weather issues or external disruptions are reported for game day.
  • The Warriors are highly motivated to capitalize on home advantage to solidify their ladder position as finals approach. The Dragons will aim to upset the Warriors to improve their standing and building momentum in a tough away environment.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline New Zealand Warriors: -186, St George Illawarra Dragons: 157, Draw: 2100 New Zealand Warriors win ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread New Zealand Warriors: -4.5 (-115), St George Illawarra Dragons: +4.5 (-115) New Zealand Warriors to cover -4.5 spread ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 42.5: -115, Under 42.5: -115 Under 42.5 points ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline New Zealand Warriors -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 42.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 42.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The New Zealand Warriors are favored to win this match based on superior form, home advantage, and data-driven win probabilities. The predicted outcome is a Warriors victory by a margin close to the spread line.

Predicted Score: New Zealand Warriors 24 – 18 St George Illawarra Dragons


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St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Cronulla Sutherland Sharks Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sutherland Sharks – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-09
  • Time: 5:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney, Australia

Game Overview

In Round 23 of the 2025 NRL season, the St George Illawarra Dragons host the Cronulla Sutherland Sharks at Jubilee Stadium. Both teams are positioned mid-table, with the Dragons in 9th and Sharks in 8th place. The Dragons seek to rebound from recent losses and their poor home form, while the Sharks aim to extend their unbeaten streak against the Dragons amidst injury challenges.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Dragons have lost their last four games played at Jubilee Stadium and are currently struggling for form at home. Meanwhile, the Sharks have won both their encounters against the Dragons this season and maintain a psychological edge. Both teams are coming off defeats last week, indicating vulnerabilities in their recent performances.
  • Cronulla Sharks have never lost to the St George Illawarra Dragons in the current season and hold a clean slate against them. Their 2-0 advantage and ability to maintain pressure in these matchups is a key factor favoring the Sharks.
  • The Sharks face a significant injury toll, including the loss of captain Tiana Penitani Gray due to concussion, weakening their backline options. The Dragons have no major recent injury reports but must overcome confidence issues from their losing streak.
  • The match is played at the Dragons' home ground, Jubilee Stadium, but with no public parking and limited street parking, fan turnout and atmosphere might be subdued, potentially affecting home advantage. Weather or other environmental conditions were not reported as notable factors.
  • Both teams are eager to snap poor runs: Dragons to recover from four consecutive home losses and the Sharks to maintain dominance over a local rival. The Sharks' unbeaten head-to-head record adds to their motivation, while the Dragons will be motivated to end that streak and improve their league standing.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: -205, St George Illawarra Dragons: 172, Draw: 2200 Cronulla Sutherland Sharks to win ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Cronulla Sutherland Sharks: -7.5 -115, St George Illawarra Dragons: +7.5 -115 Cronulla Sharks to cover -7.5 spread ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over: 46.5 -115, Under: 46.5 -115 Under 46.5 total points ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Cronulla Sutherland Sharks -6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Despite the Dragons' home advantage, the Cronulla Sharks are favored to win due to superior head-to-head form and the psychological edge. The Sharks' resilience despite injuries suggests a hard-fought but likely Sharks victory.

Predicted Score: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks 24 – 16 St George Illawarra Dragons


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St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Canberra Raiders Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canberra Raiders – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-02
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: Not specified (likely GIO Stadium, Canberra)

Game Overview

The upcoming NRL match between St George Illawarra Dragons and Canberra Raiders is set to be competitive, with Canberra showing recent strong form evidenced by their Round 18 victory over the Dragons (28-24). The Raiders have been able to maintain possession well and apply pressure defensively, with solid tackle statistics and effective run meters. Injuries have affected both sides, but the Raiders seem comparatively less impacted in key positions recently.

Key Factors to Consider

  • In their last head-to-head, Canberra Raiders narrowly defeated St George Illawarra Dragons 28-24, showcasing superior run meters (1777 vs 1506) and fewer errors (9 vs 12). Raiders have a better completion rate (30 complete sets vs 24) indicating stronger control of possession. However, Dragons have a physical edge with more tackles (354 vs 333) suggesting tight defense.
  • Recent encounter from Round 18 in July 2025 ended with Canberra Raiders winning by 4 points. Both teams traded tries evenly, but Raiders finished stronger. Historical data suggests Raiders have a slight advantage when playing at home.
  • St George Illawarra Dragons are dealing with significant injuries including Hamish Stewart (concussion), Luciano Leilua (quad), Toby Couchman (shoulder), Nathan Lawson (arm), and Christian Tuipulotu (hamstring). Damien Cook has recovered from an ankle knock. Raiders are missing Josh Papalii but have brought in reinforcements on the bench.
  • The match will likely be played at GIO Stadium in Canberra, offering home-ground advantage to the Raiders. Weather and pitch conditions are not specified but can influence conditions. Fan presence and team motivation from previous narrow results may fuel a passionate contest.
  • Both teams will be motivated for a strong finish in the Telstra Premiership season. Raiders aim to consolidate their form and leverage home advantage after a close win, while Dragons seek to overturn recent setbacks and injury challenges.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Canberra Raiders: -218, St George Illawarra Dragons: 185, Draw: 2200 Canberra Raiders ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Canberra Raiders: -6.5 -115, St George Illawarra Dragons: 6.5 -115 Canberra Raiders -6.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over: 46.5 -105, Under: 46.5 -125 Under 46.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline St George Illawarra Dragons -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The Canberra Raiders are favored to win, driven by home advantage, superior recent performance, and fewer key injuries. A close game is expected but odds favor the Raiders to cover the spread and edge out the Dragons.

Predicted Score: Canberra Raiders 26 – 20 St George Illawarra Dragons


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North Queensland Cowboys vs. St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: North Queensland Cowboys vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-25
  • Time: 8:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville, Australia

Game Overview

A fiercely competitive NRL Round 21 showdown between the North Queensland Cowboys (home) and St George Illawarra Dragons (away). Both teams are in desperate need of a victory to maintain their push for finals football. The Cowboys are favoured slightly, benefitting from a strong home record, while the Dragons bring momentum and a reputation as underdog threats on the road. The match is expected to be a tight, defensive battle, possibly influenced by Townsville’s humid tropical conditions[1][4].

Key Factors to Consider

  • Recent form is nearly even, with both sides conceding heavily lately. The Cowboys have a slim edge in home performance, but the Dragons’ attack averages 1.4 points per game more than the Cowboys this season[1].
  • Historically, the Cowboys have been stronger at home, but statistical power rankings place these teams very close (Cowboys 12.33 vs Dragons 13.67). The season’s form guide shows both teams with even momentum heading into the clash[1].
  • No injury news is provided in the available sources; injury reports closer to match time could be pivotal.
  • Townsville’s humid conditions and Queensland Country Bank Stadium’s home advantage are significant, potentially affecting fatigue and gameplay style[1].
  • Both teams are highly motivated to secure a finals spot, raising the stakes for a high-intensity, potentially low-scoring contest[1].

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Cowboys: -174, Dragons: 148, Draw: 2100 Cowboys Medium
Spread Cowboys: -4.5 (-115), Dragons: +4.5 (-115) Dragons +4.5 Medium
Over/under Over: 46.5 (-145), Under: 46.5 (+110) Under 46.5 High

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline North Queensland Cowboys -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 37%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

This is a virtual coin-flip fixture. The Cowboys have a strong home presence, but the Dragons have demonstrated value as underdogs and their attack has a slight statistical advantage. The match is predicted to be low scoring due to tough defensive efforts and challenging weather. Most statistical models, however, give the Cowboys a moderate win probability, but not by a wide margin[1][3].

Predicted Score: Cowboys 17 – Dragons 14


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Canterbury Bulldogs vs. St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Canterbury Bulldogs vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-19
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: Accor Stadium, Sydney, Australia

Game Overview

The Canterbury Bulldogs will host the St George Illawarra Dragons in what is anticipated to be a tightly contested NRL match at Accor Stadium. Both teams are motivated to cement finals positions, with recent form showing the Bulldogs as slight favourites but the Dragons possessing significant attacking potential. The game is projected to be a balanced contest that may come down to moments of individual brilliance or defensive lapses.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Bulldogs have been building momentum with an unbeaten start in the NRLW and strong team cohesion, particularly with playmaker Tayla Preston impressing. The Dragons, while inconsistent recently, have a younger lineup and a potent attack that can challenge any defense. Defence vulnerabilities on the Dragons' side could be exploited by the Bulldogs' balanced attack.
  • Recent encounters between the Bulldogs and Dragons have been closely fought with minimal separation in performance metrics. Power rankings show Bulldogs at 5.50 and Dragons at 13.33. Historical results suggest a narrow margin of victory is common, supporting the prediction of a close match.
  • No significant injury news has been reported to alter lineups drastically. The Dragons named Pia Tapsell to start, with Ahlivia Ingram moving to the bench, and Bulldogs' key player Holli Wheeler is set for her 40th NRLW appearance, indicating stable team selection.
  • The match is held at Accor Stadium, Sydney, providing a home ground advantage to the Bulldogs. The venue and match timing in the Saturday evening twilight may affect player performance and crowd influence.
  • Both teams are desperate to secure their finals credentials, creating high motivation to perform. The Bulldogs aim to extend their unbeaten run, while the Dragons seek to rebound after a recent loss to defend their competitive standing.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Canterbury Bulldogs: -290, St George Illawarra Dragons: 245, Draw: 2300 Canterbury Bulldogs win ★★★☆☆ 59%
Spread Canterbury Bulldogs: -8.5 -115, St George Illawarra Dragons: +8.5 -115 Canterbury Bulldogs to cover -8.5 points ★★★☆☆ 52%
Over/under Over 44.5: -115, Under 44.5: -115 Over 44.5 points ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Canterbury Bulldogs -20%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 44.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 44.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The Bulldogs are predicted to win narrowly, with a projected margin of around 2 points. The match is expected to be decided by key moments, with both teams capable of scoring but Bulldogs holding a slight edge due to form and home advantage.

Predicted Score: Canterbury Bulldogs 24 – 22 St George Illawarra Dragons


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St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Sydney Roosters Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Sydney Roosters – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-12
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney, Australia

Game Overview

The NRL clash between St George Illawarra Dragons and Sydney Roosters is set for July 12, 2025, at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium. The Roosters are looking to rebound after a recent upset loss, while the Dragons are fighting to keep their season alive amidst inconsistent form. Both teams bring strong rivalry history and key player returns, making this an intense contest.

Key Factors to Consider

  • St George Illawarra Dragons have only one win in their last four games and are currently 11th on the ladder, showing inconsistency. The Sydney Roosters slipped to ninth following a shock defeat but have a strong recent dominance over the Dragons, winning 12 of the last 14 matches including the last four. The Roosters have scoring power with James Tedesco’s nine tries in six games against the Dragons, while Damien Cook anchors the Dragons' defense with a high tackle count.
  • Sydney Roosters have a significant edge in recent head-to-head encounters against the Dragons, having won 12 out of the past 14 meetings and the last four straight matches, suggesting a psychological and tactical advantage.
  • The Dragons see the return of Luciano Leilua (quad) and Hamish Stewart (concussion), strengthening their lineup. The Roosters welcome back key playmaker Sam Walker, which could be a decisive factor. There are no critical new injuries reported altering team strength drastically.
  • The match is hosted by the Dragons at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, which could offer some home advantage despite their form. The Roosters are motivated to recover from their recent upset. Weather and pitch conditions are not mentioned, so assumed normal.
  • The Roosters are eager to make a statement after their upset loss and solidify their finals credentials. The Dragons battle to keep their season alive and improve consistency, indicating high motivation levels on both sides but with Roosters slightly more driven to prove themselves.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline St George Illawarra Dragons: 161, Sydney Roosters: -182, Draw: 2000 Sydney Roosters win ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread St George Illawarra Dragons: 5.5 -110, Sydney Roosters: -5.5 -120 Sydney Roosters to cover the -5.5 spread ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 47.5: -117, Under 47.5: -109 Under 47.5 points ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Sydney Roosters -12%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 47.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 47.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sydney Roosters to win due to stronger recent form, better head-to-head results, key player returns, and higher motivation after a recent loss.

Predicted Score: Sydney Roosters 24 – 18 St George Illawarra Dragons


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Canberra Raiders vs. St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-05
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: GIO Stadium Canberra, Canberra, Australia

Game Overview

The Canberra Raiders host the St George Illawarra Dragons in the NRL Round 18 clash at GIO Stadium Canberra. Canberra has shown consistency at home, while the Dragons have struggled on the road during the season. This match is expected to be a test of the Raiders' ability to maintain their home form against an undermotivated Dragons side that is currently underperforming.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Canberra Raiders have been strong performers at GIO Stadium with solid attacking and defensive stats. The Dragons have experienced mixed results, particularly away from home, showing vulnerability in defense that Canberra could exploit.
  • Recent encounters favor Canberra Raiders, especially playing at home, where the Raiders have edged out the Dragons in most recent matches. The Dragons have found it difficult to break Canberra's defense in past games.
  • No major injuries reported for Canberra Raiders. St George Illawarra Dragons have some squad concerns which might impact their attacking options and bench depth, contributing to their current form struggles.
  • Playing at home in Canberra provides the Raiders with a temperature and crowd advantage. No significant external disruptions expected. The Dragons' travel and away disadvantage play a role.
  • Raiders are highly motivated to consolidate their position in the standings with a home victory. Dragons, with a disappointing season so far, may lack the same intensity but will aim for an upset.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Canberra Raiders: -360, St George Illawarra Dragons: 270, Draw: 2500 Canberra Raiders ★★★★☆ 85%
Spread Canberra Raiders: -11.5 -115, St George Illawarra Dragons: +11.5 -115 Canberra Raiders to cover -11.5 ★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under Over 46.5: -145, Under 46.5: 110 Over 46.5 points ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Canberra Raiders -2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 46.5 10%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 46.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The Canberra Raiders are predicted to win decisively, leveraging home advantage and superior form. Expect the Raiders to cover the spread, with a moderately high scoring game given the attacking capabilities of both sides but favoring the over on total points.

Predicted Score: Canberra Raiders 28 – 14 St George Illawarra Dragons


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