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St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Penrith Panthers Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Penrith Panthers – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-06
  • Time: 5:00 AM UTC
  • Location: WIN Stadium, Wollongong

Game Overview

Penrith Panthers are clear favorites with strong recent form and championship pedigree, but St George Illawarra Dragons have home ground advantage and potential for an upset at WIN Stadium. Expect a competitive, moderately scoring match with defensive intensity.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Panthers hold dominant season form with an 81% win probability according to advanced simulations, while Dragons have been inconsistent but can leverage home crowd and underdog motivation.
  • Panthers generally stronger historically, but Dragons have caused surprise upsets at WIN Stadium. Current power rankings favor Panthers (8) over Dragons (15).
  • No specific injury reports available; assume typical NRL fitness with slight edge to Panthers in squad depth.
  • Dragons play at home in Wollongong, a venue known for upsets which may provide intangible advantage. Panthers face travel and high expectations.
  • Dragons have high motivation to prove themselves and avoid a season-ending disappointment, while Panthers seek continuation of dominance and championship momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: +410, away: -575, draw: +2500 Penrith Panthers ★★★★☆ 81%
Spread panthers_minus_15_5: -120, dragons_plus_15_5: -110 Penrith Panthers -15.5 ★★★★☆ 77%
Over/under over_49_5: -115, under_49_5: -115 Under 49.5 points ★★★☆☆ 64%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Penrith Panthers -5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 49.5 20%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penrith Panthers to win straight up with a convincing margin.

Predicted Score: Penrith Panthers 28 – St George Illawarra Dragons 12


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St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Manly Warringah Sea Eagles Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Manly Warringah Sea Eagles – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-30
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: Jubilee Stadium, Sydney

Game Overview

A tightly contested NRL matchup between the St George Illawarra Dragons and Manly Warringah Sea Eagles, both teams evenly matched with minor edges for Manly on defense and recent form. The game is expected to be decided by narrow margins with a balanced moderate scoring style.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Both teams have shown inconsistency but Manly's recent form and defensive solidity slightly outmatch the Dragons. Both averages in attack are similar, suggesting a close game.
  • Historically a dead-even matchup with marginal advantages; recent head-to-heads are split with no clear dominance.
  • No major standout injuries reported affecting key positions for either side.
  • Game played at Jubilee Stadium favors the Dragons due to home-ground advantage, but crowd influence may be countered by Manly's resilience.
  • Both teams are fighting for momentum late in the season, adding competitiveness and intensity to the match.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Manly -109, St George -109, Draw +2000 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles ★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread Manly -1.5 +105, St George +1.5 -130 Manly Sea Eagles -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under Over 48.5 -115, Under 48.5 -115 Under 48.5 ★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 15%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 48.5 16%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 48.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles to win moneyline

Predicted Score: Manly Sea Eagles 24 – 20 St George Illawarra Dragons


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South Sydney Rabbitohs vs. St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: South Sydney Rabbitohs vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-21
  • Time: 9:50 AM UTC
  • Location: Stadium Australia

Game Overview

The match features the South Sydney Rabbitohs hosting the St George Illawarra Dragons in Round 25 of the NRL season, with the Dragons currently favored to win based on recent analytics and form.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Dragons have shown stronger recent form statistically, with a predictive model assigning them a 63% chance to win. The Rabbitohs have struggled against them historically and in recent matches.
  • The Dragons hold a dominant head-to-head record recently, winning 68% of the last 34 encounters. Notably, the Dragons took the previous close match 25-24 in March 2025.
  • No major injury updates reported for either side that would significantly alter lineup strength or tactics.
  • The game is at Stadium Australia, which slightly favors the home Rabbitohs but their home advantage is not enough to overcome Dragons' current momentum.
  • Both teams are motivated for late-season wins; however, the Dragons appear more driven to secure a playoff position, impacting their likely intensity and discipline.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline South Sydney Rabbitohs +104, St George Illawarra Dragons -120, Draw +2000 St George Illawarra Dragons ★★★★☆ 74%
Spread South Sydney Rabbitohs +1.5 -115, St George Illawarra Dragons -1.5 -115 St George Illawarra Dragons -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 44.5 -110, Under 44.5 -120 Over 44.5 ★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline St George Illawarra Dragons 36%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 44.5 18%

🔥 Best Value Pick: St George Illawarra Dragons at 36% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 42.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

St George Illawarra Dragons to win (moneyline), cover -1.5 spread, and over 44.5 total points

Predicted Score: Dragons 26 – Rabbitohs 20


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New Zealand Warriors vs. St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: New Zealand Warriors vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-15
  • Time: 8:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Go Media Stadium, Auckland

Game Overview

The upcoming NRL match between New Zealand Warriors and St George Illawarra Dragons is expected to be a closely contested game, characterized by a defensive struggle and limited scoring opportunities, with the Warriors as slight favorites playing at home.

Key Factors to Consider

  • The Warriors have shown moderately stronger form overall, with a home advantage at Go Media Stadium. The Dragons exhibit resilient defensive performances and tend to perform well as underdogs on the road. Both teams' attacks have faced inconsistency recently.
  • Recent encounters have been tight with minimal margins separating winners. Power rankings slightly favor the Warriors (7.83) over the Dragons (12.67), but defensive abilities keep games close.
  • No critical injury reports were available from current data, suggesting broadly full-strength squads with no significant absences impacting the starting lineups.
  • The atmosphere created by the Auckland crowd typically boosts Warriors performances, yet the Dragons’ strong away resilience and motivation to upset the home favorites are notable.
  • The Warriors are motivated to leverage home advantage and maintain their winning momentum, while the Dragons are driven by being underdogs and their consistent defensive mindset, seeking an upset victory.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Warriors -186, Dragons 157, Draw 2100 New Zealand Warriors ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Warriors -4.5 -115, Dragons +4.5 -115 New Zealand Warriors -4.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 42.5 -115, Under 42.5 -115 Under 42.5 ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline New Zealand Warriors -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 42.5 31%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 42.5 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

New Zealand Warriors to win on the moneyline, cover the -4.5 spread, and the total score to go under 42.5 points.

Predicted Score: Warriors 22 – Dragons 18


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St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Cronulla Sutherland Sharks Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sutherland Sharks – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-09
  • Time: 5:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney

Game Overview

A tight NRL derby between southern Sydney rivals with near parity in recent form and performance metrics, expected to be a close, low-scoring contest reflective of derby intensity.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Both teams exhibit strong defense and balanced attack; Sharks have marginally better recent form with a 70-77% win probability in modeling but Dragons build momentum approaching this match.
  • Virtually even split in recent derby matchups; no dominant side with equal power rankings and similar scoring and defensive statistics.
  • No major injury news publicly available indicating significant absences for either side; squads appear near full-strength.
  • Dragons at home in an intense derby atmosphere at Jubilee Stadium which may slightly enhance their performance; Sharks have strong away record but face hostile environment.
  • Sharks highly motivated aiming for finals push; Dragons motivated by home ground pride and derby rivalry making this a high-intensity matchup.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Cronulla Sharks: -205, St George Illawarra Dragons: 172, Draw: 2200 Cronulla Sharks ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread Cronulla Sharks -7.5: -115, St George Illawarra Dragons +7.5: -115 Cronulla Sharks -7.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 46.5: -115, Under 46.5: -115 Under 46.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Cronulla Sutherland Sharks 1096%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks at 1096% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 49.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline prediction favors Cronulla Sharks to win, but the market undervalues Dragons' chance suggesting potential value on Dragons for spread and moneyline. Spread predicted to favor Sharks covering -7.5 given their superior form with moderate confidence. Total points expected under 46.5 due to derby intensity limiting scoring.

Predicted Score: Cronulla Sharks 22 – St George Illawarra Dragons 15


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St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Canberra Raiders Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canberra Raiders – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-02
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: GIO Stadium, Canberra

Game Overview

The Canberra Raiders enter this match as strong favorites against the St George Illawarra Dragons, playing at home after a run of dominant performances, while the Dragons are struggling with injuries and inconsistent form.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Canberra Raiders are on a six-game winning streak at home, averaging 32 points per game. The Dragons have had recent struggles with form and injuries, returning to winning only recently and facing a tougher lineup disruption.
  • Raiders have won the last four encounters against the Dragons and are unbeaten at Canberra since 2015, demonstrating clear dominance in recent meetings.
  • St George Illawarra is impacted by multiple injuries and Origin call-ups, notably missing key players like Valentine Holmes and Nathan Lawson. Canberra has some lineup changes but retains a settled spine and welcomes back Hudson Young.
  • Playing at home in front of a supportive crowd enhances Canberra's advantage. Weather or other conditions not noted as significant.
  • Raiders aim to consolidate their top-of-the-table position and extend their winning streak, while Dragons are motivated to break their losing streak but face a challenging environment.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Canberra Raiders -218, St George Illawarra Dragons 185, Draw 2200 Canberra Raiders ★★★★☆ 82%
Spread Canberra Raiders -6.5 (-115), St George Illawarra Dragons +6.5 (-115) Canberra Raiders -6.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 46.5 (-105), Under 46.5 (-125) Under 46.5 ★★★☆☆ 57%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline St George Illawarra Dragons 14%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: St George Illawarra Dragons at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Canberra’s strong form, home advantage, head-to-head dominance, and the Dragons’ injury setbacks, the Raiders are favored to win comfortably and cover a moderate spread.

Predicted Score: Canberra Raiders 28 – St George Illawarra Dragons 14


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North Queensland Cowboys vs. St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: North Queensland Cowboys vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-25
  • Time: 8:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville

Game Overview

The North Queensland Cowboys host the St George Illawarra Dragons at home, where the Cowboys traditionally perform well. Both teams are contending for a position in the finals, but despite similar recent defensive records, the Cowboys have a slight power ranking edge and the added advantage of home ground, while the Dragons have shown resilience and upside as underdogs, especially in tight contests. Tropical conditions and humidity could play a role in fatigue and error rates.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Both teams have been conceding heavily in recent weeks, but the Dragons have a slight edge in points scored per game. The Cowboys have an impressive home record, but their recent defense is a concern. Dragons are on a resurgent run and have been competitive on the road.
  • Cowboys traditionally dominate at home. Their power ranking is marginally better (12.33 vs 13.67), but statistical analysis reveals minimal separation between the sides[1]. This is a near coin-flip match by most metrics.
  • No significant recent injury reports for either side (as of current data), but always check closer to kickoff for late changes.
  • Tropical heat and humidity in Townsville may affect conditioning, favoring teams with superior fitness and discipline. The Cowboys’ home fortress effect is notable[1].
  • Both teams are highly motivated for a crucial finals push, elevating the stakes and likely resulting in a tightly contested match.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Cowboys -174 / Dragons 148 / Draw 2100 St George Illawarra Dragons ★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread Cowboys -4.5 (-115) / Dragons +4.5 (-115) Dragons +4.5 ★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under Over 46.5 (-145) / Under 46.5 (110) Under 46.5 ★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline St George Illawarra Dragons 26%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 22%

🔥 Best Value Pick: St George Illawarra Dragons at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

This is one of the closest fixtures of the round, with the Cowboys’ home record counterbalanced by the Dragons’ recent form. Despite bookmakers favoring the Cowboys, the Dragons offer significant value as underdogs. Expect a low-scoring, defensive battle due to humid conditions and high stakes[1].

Predicted Score: St George Illawarra Dragons 20 – North Queensland Cowboys 19


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Canterbury Bulldogs vs. St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Canterbury Bulldogs vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-19
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: Not specified

Game Overview

Canterbury Bulldogs and St George Illawarra Dragons face off in a crucial NRL matchup, with the Bulldogs favored to win. Recent form and head-to-head statistics suggest a strong performance by the Bulldogs.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Canterbury Bulldogs have shown stronger recent form compared to the Dragons.
  • The Bulldogs have a slight edge in head-to-head matches, winning more frequently.
  • Injury reports are not specified, but both teams are expected to field their best lineups.
  • Home advantage could slightly favor the Bulldogs.
  • Both teams are motivated to secure a win, but the Bulldogs' current form might give them an edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Canterbury Bulldogs: -360, St George Illawarra Dragons: 290 Canterbury Bulldogs ★★★★☆ 74%
Spread Canterbury Bulldogs: -10.5 -115, St George Illawarra Dragons: 10.5 -115 Canterbury Bulldogs -10.5 ★★★☆☆ 69%
Over/under Over: 44.5 -115, Under: 44.5 -115 Over 44.5 ★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Canterbury Bulldogs -17%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 44.5 -1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 44.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The Bulldogs are likely to win, given their recent performance and slight historical advantage.

Predicted Score: 24-14 Bulldogs


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St George Illawarra Dragons vs. Sydney Roosters Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: St George Illawarra Dragons vs Sydney Roosters – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-12
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: Not explicitly provided, likely St George Illawarra home ground

Game Overview

The match is a key NRL clash between St George Illawarra Dragons and Sydney Roosters, two fierce rivals. The Roosters have dominated this fixture recently, winning 12 of the last 14 encounters, including the last four straight matches. The Roosters come off a shock loss and are motivated to assert dominance, while the Dragons are fighting to keep their season alive amid inconsistency.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Sydney Roosters have shown strong form and resilience, buoyed by the return of key playmaker Sam Walker. The Dragons have struggled with consistency and are relying on veterans like Damien Cook to lead defensively. Recent matches saw the Roosters thrash the Dragons 46-18 in Round 8, underlining their superiority.
  • Sydney Roosters have a significant edge in head-to-head matchups, winning 12 out of the last 14 games against the Dragons, including four consecutive wins.
  • Dragons have some players returning from injury including Luciano Leilua and Hamish Stewart, but have dropped Viliami Fifita and Loko Pasifiki Tonga. Roosters have Nat Butcher out but are boosted by the return of Sam Walker and additions like Billy Smith and Angus Crichton.
  • The match is being played in a high-pressure environment for both teams. The Roosters are eager to recover from their upset loss and solidify finals credentials. Broadcast access is broad, with coverage in major rugby league markets, increasing exposure and pressure.
  • Roosters are highly motivated to rebound from a recent upset and maintain their dominance in this rivalry. Dragons are motivated by the need to stay in finals contention, but their inconsistency could be a limiting factor.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline St George Illawarra Dragons: 161, Sydney Roosters: -182, Draw: 2000 Sydney Roosters High
Spread Dragons +5.5: -110, Roosters -5.5: -120 Sydney Roosters -5.5 High
Over/under Over 47.5: -117, Under 47.5: -109 Over 47.5 Moderate

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Sydney Roosters 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 47.5 -2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Sydney Roosters at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sydney Roosters to win straight up, continuing their strong recent dominance over the Dragons.

Predicted Score: Sydney Roosters 28 – St George Illawarra Dragons 18


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Canberra Raiders vs. St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction NRL in Rugby League

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Match Analysis: Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-05
  • Time: 7:30 AM UTC
  • Location: GIO Stadium Canberra, Canberra, Australia

Game Overview

The Round 18 NRL match features the Canberra Raiders hosting the St George Illawarra Dragons at GIO Stadium Canberra. The Raiders have home advantage and will look to leverage strong recent form and local support. The Dragons, traveling to Canberra, aim to overcome the odds as underdogs in this contest. Both teams have experienced mixed results this season, making the game an intriguing competitive fixture.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Canberra Raiders have demonstrated solid performances at home in the 2025 season and have a more consistent win record compared to the Dragons. The Dragons have struggled on the road this season, which could impact their competitiveness in this match.
  • Recent head-to-head meetings favor the Canberra Raiders, who have won a majority of the recent encounters against the Dragons, especially at home. This history provides Canberra a psychological edge.
  • Latest injury reports suggest minor setbacks for both teams but no major absences that could drastically alter team dynamics. However, close attention to final team sheets is recommended closer to kick-off.
  • Home crowd support at GIO Stadium and familiarity with local conditions benefit Canberra. Weather forecasts predict typical Canberra winter conditions, unlikely to greatly disrupt play.
  • Canberra Raiders have strong motivation to consolidate their position in the league rankings before finals, while the Dragons aim to improve their season standing. The Raiders' home advantage likely adds an extra motivational boost.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: -360, away: 270, draw: 2500 Canberra Raiders win ★★★★☆ 82%
Spread home: -11.5 -115, away: 11.5 -115 Canberra Raiders to cover the -11.5 spread ★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under over: 46.5 -145, under: 46.5 110 Under 46.5 points ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Canberra Raiders -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 26%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Taking into account home advantage, recent form, and head-to-head dominance, Canberra Raiders are favored to secure a win against St George Illawarra Dragons with a confident margin.

Predicted Score: Canberra Raiders 28 – 14 St George Illawarra Dragons


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