Match Analysis: Fresno State Bulldogs vs Southern University Jaguars – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-14
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: Valley Children's Stadium

Game Overview

The Fresno State Bulldogs host the Southern University Jaguars in a Week 3 NCAA football matchup. Fresno State is a strong favorite at home with a 2-1 start, while Southern is struggling with a 1-2 record and poor road form. The Bulldogs' defense and consistent home success heavily favor them.

Key Factors to Consider

• Fresno State has a powerful offense and rank well defensively, with a strong record at home in September, having won 9 of their last 10 such games. Southern is 0-18 on the road and 0-14 in September games, showing consistent struggles away from home.
• Fresno State decisively beat Southern 42-14 earlier in the 2025 season, demonstrating superiority and confidence going into this rematch.
• Fresno State's tight end B. Lium is questionable with an undisclosed injury, which may slightly impact red-zone efficiency but is unlikely to change the dominant outlook.
• No significant external factors reported. Game is at Fresno State's home stadium with typical conditions favorable for the Bulldogs.
• Fresno State is motivated to maintain home dominance and improve to 3-1, while Southern aims to break their poor road stretch though likely faces a difficult task against a superior opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Fresno State -3500, Southern +1200	Fresno State	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Fresno State -35.5 -110, Southern +35.5 -110	Fresno State -35.5	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 48.5 -110, Under 48.5 -110	Under 48.5	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 48.5 24%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 48.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Fresno State to cover the -35.5 spread

Predicted Score: Fresno State 42 – Southern 7