Match Analysis: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs UL Monroe Warhawks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: M. M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg, MS
Game Overview
Southern Mississippi (5-2, 3-0 Sun Belt) hosts UL Monroe (3-4, 1-2 Sun Belt). Southern Miss is undefeated in conference play and riding better form, while ULM has lost three straight and struggled offensively. Home venue, better record, and recent trends strongly favor the Golden Eagles in this Sun Belt matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- Southern Miss has won three of last five, covering in six straight as double-digit favorites, while ULM has dropped three straight and is 117th in total offense and 131st in scoring offense nationally.
- No recent head-to-head data found, but Southern Miss's consistent spread coverage as favorites suggests a recent edge.
- No major injury news reported for either team.
- Kickoff is at home for Southern Miss with fair weather expected—80°F, 0% rain, minimal wind—favoring standard game plans.
- Southern Miss is competing for the Sun Belt West title; ULM is floundering and facing a tough schedule stretch. Motivation clearly favors the home side.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -430/+340 | Southern Miss Golden Eagles | ★★★★☆ 81% |
| Spread | -11.5 -105/+11.5 -115 | Southern Miss Golden Eagles -11.5 | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Over/under | 50.5 -110 | Over 50.5 | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 252% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 50.5 20% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at 252% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 74.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Southern Miss is a confident play at home given recent form, superior offensive output, and ULM's offensive woes. The spread is wide, but Southern Miss covers trends and ULM's defensive struggles make the total a live over play.
Predicted Score: Southern Miss 34, UL Monroe 20