Match Analysis: Dolphins vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-28
- Time: 9:50 AM UTC
- Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Game Overview
The Dolphins will face the South Sydney Rabbitohs in a Round 17 NRL match at Suncorp Stadium. Both teams are coming off consecutive losses, with the Dolphins sitting 9th on the ladder seeking to rebound and push into the finals, while the Rabbitohs, at 16th, aim to halt a poor run of form. This match carries added intrigue as it features Wayne Bennett coaching the Rabbitohs against his former team, the Dolphins, now led by his protege Kristian Woolf. Weather disruptions earlier in the season led to a venue switch and schedule reshuffle for these clubs. The game is the second of a double-header day at the venue, with fans advised to arrive early due to crowding and security measures.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Dolphins have had a mixed season but remain just outside the top eight, battling to keep finals hopes alive. They recently lost to Newcastle Knights, reflecting some inconsistency. The Rabbitohs have struggled more significantly, with just 17 wins in their last 52 matches and a recent golden point loss to Melbourne showing some promise but ongoing challenges. The Dolphins have adapted well under Kristian Woolf, showing resilience despite injuries, while the Rabbitohs are still rebuilding under Bennett.
- The two teams met in Round 1, with the Rabbitohs narrowly edging the Dolphins 16-14 in a hard-fought encounter at CommBank Stadium. Historically, the Rabbitohs have had the upper hand, but the Dolphins have been competitive since their introduction to the NRL. The current season’s first match was tightly contested, suggesting another close game is likely.
- The Dolphins are missing Jack Bostock (ACL injury, season-ending), replaced by Junior Tupou on the wing. The Rabbitohs have been affected by injuries throughout the season but no new significant injury reports ahead of this match have been noted. Both teams are dealing with squad depth challenges but have named strong sides.
- The match is now held at Suncorp Stadium due to Cyclone Alfred-related rescheduling. The venue is a home ground for the Dolphins, giving them a slight advantage. Two matches on the same day may affect crowd energy and player warmups, but both teams have had similar experience with these conditions. Weather appears stable for the match day.
- The Dolphins are highly motivated to regain momentum and secure a vital win to bolster their finals chances. Facing their former coach adds an emotional edge. The Rabbitohs, despite a poor season so far, are driven to improve and gain confidence by upsetting a higher-ranked adversary, with key players like Alex Johnston aiming to continue personal milestones.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dolphins: -162, South Sydney Rabbitohs: 140, Draw: 2100 | Dolphins win | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Spread | Dolphins -3.5: -115, South Sydney Rabbitohs +3.5: -115 | Dolphins to cover -3.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 49.5: -115, Under 49.5: -115 | Under 49.5 points total | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dolphins -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 49.5 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Dolphins are favored to win due to home advantage, stronger recent form, and motivation to rebound, but the Rabbitohs will keep it competitive. Expect a closely contested match with the Dolphins prevailing by a narrow margin.
Predicted Score: Dolphins 24 – Rabbitohs 20