Match Analysis: Sofia Montenegro vs Jeisla Chaves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-24
- Time: 1:05 AM UTC
- Location: Dana White's Contender Series, Flyweight Division
Game Overview
Flyweight matchup between Sofia Montenegro (6-1) and Jeisla Chaves (5-0) on Dana White's Contender Series. Montenegro is slightly more experienced and tested against better opposition, while Chaves is undefeated but with less proven competition.
Key Factors to Consider
- Montenegro has a record of 6-1 with wins by KO/TKO, submission, and decision; Chaves is 5-0 but against unproven opponents with no MMA wins, showing solid striking but unproven ground skills.
- No prior encounters between the two fighters.
- No publicly reported injuries for either fighter before the contest.
- Montenegro trains at the UFC Performance Institute, suggesting better access to elite training resources; Chaves has a Muay Thai base but limited MMA experience.
- Both are motivated to secure a UFC contract; Montenegro aims to leverage her broader skill set and experience to make a statement, while Chaves looks for a breakout performance despite less tested opposition.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sofia Montenegro: -188, Jeisla Chaves: +163 | Sofia Montenegro | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | Sofia Montenegro -1.5: -140, Jeisla Chaves +1.5: +120 | Sofia Montenegro -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -145, Under 2.5: +125 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sofia Montenegro -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 35% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 35% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sofia Montenegro to win by decision
Predicted Score: Sofia Montenegro wins by decision after 3 rounds