Match Analysis: Alavés vs Sevilla – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 4:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio de Mendizorroza
Game Overview
Alavés hosts Sevilla in a tightly matched La Liga game, where Alavés have shown slight superiority in recent form and home advantage, but Sevilla's quality and historical edge in head-to-head clashes keep this contest balanced and competitive.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alavés currently sits 7th in the league with better recent form (W-D-L-W-L) compared to Sevilla’s struggles (W-L-L-L-L), showing stronger home performances and greater defensive consistency.
- Sevilla have historically dominated head-to-head with 13 wins out of 27 matches versus Alavés’ 7, but Alavés has a solid home record against Sevilla, including recent competitive results and a narrow goal difference.
- Sevilla missing key players including Tanguy Nianzou and Ruben Vargas impacts their defense and attack; Alavés injury status is less critical at present.
- No major external disruptions noted; playing at Mendizorroza favors Alavés, who have motivated form and home crowd support.
- Alavés looking to consolidate their top-half position while Sevilla needs points to climb from mid-lower table, increasing motivation for a disciplined performance from Sevilla.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alavés: +139, Sevilla: +215, Draw: +212 | Alavés | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Spread | Alavés -0.25: +102, Sevilla +25: -122 | Alavés -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 2: -122, Under 2: +102 | Under 2 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alavés 5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 25% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Alavés win; Spread: Alavés -0.25; Over/Under: Under 2 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0