Match Analysis: Chris Bungard vs Simone Patrizi – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 22, 2025
• Time: 10:15 PM UTC
• Location: BEC Arena, Manchester, England

Game Overview

This is a highly anticipated lightweight bout at Cage Warriors 198 between Scottish veteran Chris Bungard and Italian fan favorite Simone Patrizi. The two fighters were originally scheduled to meet in Newcastle earlier in 2025 but the bout fell through due to weight-cutting issues. Both competitors have significant motivation for this matchup, with Bungard seeking his 30th career victory and Patrizi attempting to stop a recent skid in the stacked Cage Warriors lightweight division.[1][3][4]

Key Factors to Consider

• Chris Bungard holds a strong 21-10 professional record with 5 KO/TKO victories and 11 submission wins, demonstrating a well-rounded skillset with particular strength in submissions. Simone Patrizi carries a 7-4 record with 4 KO/TKO wins and only 1 submission victory, suggesting a more striking-oriented approach. Bungard's superior experience and submission prowess give him a notable edge in overall fight arsenal.[2]
• This will be the first official meeting between these two fighters, though they were previously scheduled to compete in Newcastle. The original cancellation stemmed from weight-cut complications, adding an extra layer of motivation and potential frustration for both competitors heading into this rematch of sorts.[3]
• No current injury information is available for either fighter in the provided search results.
• The bout takes place in Manchester, England, which may provide a slight advantage to Bungard as a British fighter competing in the UK. Patrizi, fighting abroad as an Italian competitor, must contend with travel and potential crowd disadvantage.[3][4]
• Bungard is motivated by the pursuit of his 30th career victory, a significant milestone for the Scottish veteran. Patrizi is dealing with considerable pressure after winning just one of his last four fights and cannot afford another loss if he hopes to remain competitive in the lightweight division.[3]

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Bungard -135 | Patrizi -105	Chris Bungard Victory	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Chris Bungard -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Chris Bungard at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Chris Bungard is favored to win this matchup due to his superior experience, well-rounded skillset with particular submission expertise, and the psychological edge from seeking a career-milestone 30th victory. While Patrizi presents an entertaining striker capable of finishing opponents, his recent form (1-3 in last four) and submission vulnerability (only 1 submission win versus Bungard's 11) suggest Bungard will control the pace and likely secure victory via submission or decision.

Predicted Score: Chris Bungard wins via submission (Round 2) or by decision (29-28 or 30-27) after controlling the fight through superior grappling and positional control. Most likely outcome: Bungard submission victory at 4:15 of Round 2.

Match Analysis: Simone Patrizi vs Chris Bungard – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 3:00 PM UTC
• Location: Vertu Motors Arena, Newcastle

Game Overview

The lightweight division bout between Scottish veteran Chris Bungard and Italy's Simone Patrizi is set for the main card at Cage Warriors 193 on September 13, 2025, in Newcastle. Bungard comes into the fight in strong recent form with several finishes, while Patrizi brings technical striking and grappling skills, making this a potentially tactical matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

• Chris Bungard is currently in red-hot form with a series of finishes, showing aggressive striking and control. Patrizi has solid technique with a balanced striking and grappling arsenal, but has faced tougher competition with mixed results.
• There are no recorded previous encounters between Simone Patrizi and Chris Bungard, making this their first official meeting.
• No publicly known injuries reported for either fighter ahead of this bout, indicating both are likely at full health.
• The fight is held in Newcastle, favoring local support for Chris Bungard, who is Scottish and used to UK fight environments. Patrizi may face slight travel adjustment.
• Bungard is motivated to maintain momentum and solidify his regional standing with another finish, while Patrizi aims to upset a hot prospect and boost his own ranking in the lightweight division.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Chris Bungard: -115, Simone Patrizi: -125	Simone Patrizi	★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread	Chris Bungard -1.5: +150, Simone Patrizi +1.5: -170	Simone Patrizi +1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -110, Under 1.5 rounds: -110	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Chris Bungard -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Chris Bungard at -11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Chris Bungard is favored to win due to his current momentum, finishing ability, and home region advantage. The fight is likely to be competitive but Bungard has the edge in confidence and recent fight sharpness.

Predicted Score: Chris Bungard wins by decision or late stoppage

Match Analysis: Adam Shelley vs Simone Patrizi – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-08
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Not specified

Game Overview

Adam Shelley and Simone Patrizi face off in an MMA match as part of Cage Warriors. Both fighters are closely matched, with Shelley slightly favored in some aspects but Patrizi having a strong reputation as well.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both fighters have shown strong skills in their respective careers. Shelley's recent performances indicate a solid ground game, while Patrizi is known for his aggressive striking.
• There is no available head-to-head data between these fighters, making it a first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight is part of a significant event, which might add pressure but also provides a high level of motivation for both fighters.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, seeking a win to advance their careers in Cage Warriors.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-110 for Adam Shelley, -120 for Simone Patrizi	Adam Shelley	★★★☆☆ 55%

Predicted Outcome

Adam Shelley is slightly favored due to his recent form, but Simone Patrizi's aggressive style could pose a significant challenge.

Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Adam Shelley