Match Analysis: Shido Boris Esperanca vs Ayinda Octave – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: PFL Africa Welterweight Main Card

Game Overview

The matchup features Shido Boris Esperanca, a rising star deeply connected to Angola's proud MMA warrior heritage, against the less-favored Ayinda Octave in a PFL Africa welterweight bout. Esperanca enters as a strong favorite with superior recent form and pronounced home region motivation.

Key Factors to Consider

• Esperanca has shown consistent form and skill development in recent fights, with a record reflecting dominance in striking and grappling, whereas Octave's recent fights lack the same level of decisive victories or technical superiority.
• No publicly available direct H2H records, suggesting this is either their first encounter or no notable past matchups.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout, indicating both athletes are likely at full physical capacity.
• The fight's location within PFL Africa and Esperanca's national ties to Angola provide a psychological and motivational edge. There are no known external disruptions affecting either fighter.
• Esperanca has elevated motivation due to representing Angola in a rising MMA platform, aligning with cultural warrior pride, likely increasing focus and competitiveness.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -255, away: +215	Shido Boris Esperanca	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	home: -1.5 at -120, away: +1.5 at +100	Shido Boris Esperanca -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under	over: +140, under: -160	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Shido Boris Esperanca -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Shido Boris Esperanca to win decisively with the fight staying under 1.5 rounds

Predicted Score: Esperanca wins by TKO in round 1

Match Analysis: Shido Boris Esperanca vs Ibrahima Mane – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Big Top Arena, Johannesburg, South Africa

Game Overview

The welterweight first-round PFL Africa tournament bout between Shido Boris Esperanca and Ibrahima Mane showcases two well-matched fighters competing for advancement in the prestigious PFL league.

Key Factors to Consider

• Shido Boris Esperanca holds the edge with slightly better recent form in PFL Africa events and demonstrated strong grappling and ground control, while Ibrahima Mane relies more on reach and striking power but has been less consistent.
• No direct previous official matchups found between Shido Boris Esperanca and Ibrahima Mane, making this their first competitive encounter.
• No reported injuries or weight issues for either fighter; both made weight comfortably at 170.6 lbs at the official weigh-in.
• Fight held at Big Top Arena in Johannesburg, potentially neutral territory with no significant home advantage; both fighters have traveled from Africa, minimizing acclimatization issues.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to advance in the PFL Africa welterweight tournament, with local crowd support slightly favoring Shido Boris Esperanca (Angola) due to geographic proximity, but Ibrahima Mane (Gambia) driven as underdog.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Shido Boris Esperanca -202, Ibrahima Mane +162	Shido Boris Esperanca	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Shido Boris Esperanca -1.5 / Ibrahima Mane +1.5	Shido Boris Esperanca -1.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds / Under 2.5 rounds	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Shido Boris Esperanca -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Shido Boris Esperanca at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Shido Boris Esperanca to win by decision

Predicted Score: Shido Boris Esperanca wins by unanimous decision