Match Analysis: Shay Ingram vs Farukh Aligadzhiev – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-28
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK
Game Overview
The upcoming Cage Warriors 191 bout features Shay Ingram versus Farukh Aligadzhiev in the lightweight division (155 lbs). Ingram is favored heavily due to his powerful striking and superior stand-up game, while Aligadzhiev is seen as the underdog. The match is expected to showcase Ingram's offensive dominance against Aligadzhiev's resilience and grappling capabilities.
Key Factors to Consider
- Shay Ingram boasts a strong MMA record with notable stand-up skills and recent victories that put him in a commanding position. Farukh Aligadzhiev has shown competitive performances but comes in as the underdog with fewer recent wins against top-tier opponents.
- There are no prior head-to-head matches between Shay Ingram and Farukh Aligadzhiev, making this a fresh contest without historical matchup data.
- No significant injuries have been reported for either fighter ahead of the match, indicating both are in peak condition for the fight.
- Fighting in Manchester, closer to Ingram’s local fan base, may provide him with crowd support. There are no indications of external conditions negatively impacting either fighter.
- Ingram is motivated to maintain his winning trajectory and solidify his position at lightweight, while Aligadzhiev is driven by the opportunity to upset a favored opponent and gain recognition.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Shay Ingram: -950, Farukh Aligadzhiev: +650 | Shay Ingram to win | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Shay Ingram -1.5 rounds: -400, Farukh Aligadzhiev +1.5 rounds: +320 | Shay Ingram by more than 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -150, Under 2.5 rounds: +130 | Under 2.5 rounds (fight finishes early) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Shay Ingram -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Shay Ingram at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Shay Ingram is predicted to win by utilizing his striking advantage and control the pace of the fight. Though Aligadzhiev could exploit grappling exchanges, Ingram's overall skill set and odds strongly favor him to secure a victory.
Predicted Score: Shay Ingram wins by TKO in Round 2