Match Analysis: Shara Magomedov vs Marc-Andre Barriault – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-26
• Time: 7:00 PM UTC
• Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi

Game Overview

The UFC middleweight matchup features Shara Magomedov, a dominant 15-1 fighter known for his accuracy and defensive ability, facing off against Marc-Andre Barriault, a durable and high-volume striker with a 17-9 record.

Key Factors to Consider

• Magomedov exhibits higher striking accuracy (62%) and better striking defense (42% strikes absorbed) than Barriault, who lands more total strikes per minute but with lower accuracy (47%) and absorbs more strikes (5.57 per minute). Magomedov's recent loss has motivated him to reassert dominance.
• No recorded head-to-head bouts; this will be their first meeting.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
• Fight held at neutral venue in Abu Dhabi, with no discernible home advantage or external stressors for either fighter.
• Magomedov seeks to recover from his first professional loss and reestablish himself as a top contender; Barriault aims to capitalize on his durability and experience to upset the favored Magomedov.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Shara Magomedov -625, Marc-Andre Barriault +455	Shara Magomedov	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Shara Magomedov -3.5 (-290), Marc-Andre Barriault +3.5 (205)	Shara Magomedov -3.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 1.5 (-188), Under 1.5 (+145)	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Shara Magomedov -10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 59%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 59% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 40.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Shara Magomedov to win; Spread: Shara Magomedov to win by more than 3.5 rounds; Over/Under: Under 1.5 rounds (fight likely to go longer)

Predicted Score: Shara Magomedov wins by decision after three rounds