Match Analysis: Sergey Spivak vs Shamil Gaziev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 22, 2025
• Time: 6:00 PM UTC
• Location: ABHA Arena, Doha, Qatar

Game Overview

This is a heavyweight matchup between two accomplished fighters in UFC Fight Night 265. Sergey Spivak (17-6-0) faces Shamil Gaziev (14-1-0) in what represents a significant test for both competitors. This fight was originally scheduled for May 17, 2025, then rescheduled to June 7, 2025 before finally being set for November 22, 2025. Gaziev withdrew from the June bout due to a broken finger, which was replaced by another fighter. Both fighters are looking to make a statement in the heavyweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Shamil Gaziev enters with an exceptional 14-1 record with a 64% knockout rate (9 KOs out of 15 fights) and 21% submission win rate (3 submissions). His recent performance shows dominance, with a TKO victory over Thomas Petersen on February 1, 2025. Sergey Spivak has a 17-6 record but has faced inconsistent results recently. He lost to Jailton Almeida via TKO at the end of round one on January 18, 2025. However, Spivak demonstrated resilience with a Performance of the Night-caliber armbar submission over Marcin Tybura in August 2024.
• This is the fighters' first scheduled meeting. The fight was previously rescheduled twice, suggesting logistical challenges. Gaziev's superior striking prowess and knockout rate present a significant stylistic threat to Spivak, though Spivak's submission expertise and experience could provide alternative paths to victory.
• Shamil Gaziev previously suffered a broken finger that forced him to withdraw from the June 7, 2025 UFC 316 bout. Current injury status as of November 20, 2025 is not indicated in available information. No recent injuries are reported for Sergey Spivak.
• The fight location in Doha, Qatar represents neutral ground for both fighters. The repeated scheduling changes may have affected fight camp preparation and fighter momentum. Gaziev's recent dominant form and high knockout rate suggest strong conditioning and technical readiness.
• Both fighters have motivation to secure a victory. Gaziev seeks to maintain his elite position in the heavyweight division with his dominant record. Spivak, coming off a recent loss, is motivated to return to winning ways and rebuild his position after the Almeida defeat.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	spivak: -133, gaziev: 112	Shamil Gaziev	★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under	over_1_5: -130, under_1_5: 100	Under 1.5 Rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Shamil Gaziev 10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 16%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Shamil Gaziev is favored to win this matchup based on superior recent form, exceptional knockout rate (64%), dominant record (14-1), and striking-heavy combat profile. While Sergey Spivak possesses submission skills and fighting experience, Gaziev's striking prowess and recent performance trajectory suggest he is better positioned to control this heavyweight contest.

Predicted Score: Shamil Gaziev via TKO/KO in Round 1 (65% confidence) or Round 2 (28% confidence). Alternative: Sergey Spivak via Submission in Round 2 (7% confidence)

Match Analysis: Shamil Gaziev vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 22, 2025
• Time: 6:00 PM UTC
• Location: Qatar

Game Overview

Waldo Cortes-Acosta steps in on short notice (3 days) to replace injured Sergei Spivac against Shamil Gaziev in a UFC heavyweight bout. This is a significant opportunity for Cortes-Acosta, though he recently dealt with an eye poke injury that he overcame to take this fight. Gaziev faces a late-notice opponent replacement, which could present both advantages and disadvantages in fight preparation.

Key Factors to Consider

• Shamil Gaziev is the original scheduled opponent facing a fresh heavyweight matchup. Waldo Cortes-Acosta has accepted a last-minute replacement fight, demonstrating willingness and confidence but facing limited preparation time.
• No prior combat history between these fighters. Both are heavyweight competitors with Gaziev being the primary scheduled fighter.
• Waldo Cortes-Acosta recently suffered an eye poke injury but overcame it to accept this fight on short notice, suggesting either minor severity or exceptional determination. Sergei Spivac's injury necessitated the replacement.
• The 3-day notice for Cortes-Acosta is a substantial disadvantage in fight camp preparation, game planning, and physical conditioning. Fighting on short notice typically favors fighters with experience in such situations. Gaziev may have had extended preparation time disrupted by the opponent change.
• Cortes-Acosta is highly motivated as a replacement fighter earning significant exposure on short notice. Gaziev maintains his scheduled fight opportunity but faces adjustment to a new opponent on the event.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gaziev +140 | Cortes-Acosta -160	Shamil Gaziev Victory	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -115 | Under 2.5 -105	Under 2.5 Rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Waldo Cortes-Acosta 48%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Waldo Cortes-Acosta at 48% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Shamil Gaziev is favored to win this matchup. The -160 moneyline for Cortes-Acosta (implying approximately 61.5% implied probability) versus +140 for Gaziev (implying approximately 41.7% implied probability) reflects the significant disadvantage of fighting on 3 days notice. Despite Cortes-Acosta's demonstrated willingness and recent eye poke recovery, the limited preparation time and disrupted training camp heavily favor Gaziev, who had planned for this bout.

Predicted Score: Shamil Gaziev defeats Waldo Cortes-Acosta via Submission or Decision in Round 2 (approximately 8-10 minutes). The fight likely remains competitive but Gaziev's superior preparation time and fighter adjustments result in dominant positioning and control, leading to either a late submission or clear-cut decision victory.