Match Analysis: Shakur Stevenson vs William Zepeda – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-12
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Louis Armstrong Stadium, Queens, United States

Game Overview

The WBC lightweight title fight between reigning champion Shakur Stevenson and challenger William Zepeda is expected to showcase Stevenson's technical superiority and strategic ring control against Zepeda's aggressive style.

Key Factors to Consider

• Stevenson has demonstrated dominant performances in recent bouts, notably against come-forward opponents like Jamel Herring, using precise jabs and body attacks to control fights. Zepeda is known for his intensity and forward pressure but lacks Stevenson's technical defense and counterpunching.
• This is their first meeting; no direct H2H data available.
• No reported injuries for either fighter, both expected in peak physical condition.
• Fight is held at home territory for Stevenson in Queens, NY, with significant media attention and crowd support. Broadcast on DAZN PPV enhances exposure and pressure on both fighters.
• Stevenson is highly motivated to cement his legacy and unify the lightweight division. Zepeda is motivated as the underdog to upset and claim a major title but faces considerable odds.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Shakur Stevenson: -1200, William Zepeda: 650	Shakur Stevenson	★★★★☆ 87%
Spread	Stevenson -4.5 rounds: -140, Zepeda +4.5 rounds: +110	Stevenson -4.5 rounds (win by 5 or more rounds)	★★★★☆ 78%
Over/under	Over 10.5 rounds: -335, Under 10.5 rounds: +245	Under 10.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Shakur Stevenson -6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 10.5 148%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 10.5 at 148% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 60.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Shakur Stevenson to win by TKO/KO before round 10

Predicted Score: Stevenson wins by TKO in round 9

Top EV Parlay for Boxing – July 12, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Tsendbaatar Erdenbat vs. Humberto Galindo Prediction	Tsendbaatar Erdenbat	-1000	420%
Shakur Stevenson vs. William Zepeda Prediction	Under 10.5	245	148%
Subriel Matias vs. Alberto Puello Prediction	Under 10.5	160	82%

Combined Odds: +887 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $197.34

Match Analysis: Shakur Stevenson vs Joshua Padley – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-02-22
• Time: 5:00 PM UTC
• Location: Kingdom Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Game Overview

Shakur Stevenson, the WBC lightweight champion, is set to defend his title against Josh Padley, a late replacement for Floyd Schofield, who withdrew due to illness. Stevenson is highly favored in this bout, given his undefeated record and recent performances.

Key Factors to Consider

• Shakur Stevenson is undefeated with a record of 22-0, including 10 knockouts. He is ranked as ESPN's No. 9 pound-for-pound men's fighter and No. 3 in the lightweight rankings. Josh Padley, though unbeaten in 15 fights, lacks the power and speed of Stevenson.
• There is no previous head-to-head matchup between Shakur Stevenson and Josh Padley.
• Floyd Schofield's withdrawal due to illness led to Josh Padley stepping in as a replacement. There are no reported injuries for either Stevenson or Padley.
• The fight is part of a major event in Riyadh, which might add pressure but also provides a significant stage for both fighters. Stevenson's promoter, Eddie Hearn, likely chose Padley to ensure a win before a potential fight with Gervonta Davis.
• Stevenson is highly motivated to win and set up a future fight with Gervonta Davis. Padley, despite being an underdog, has a chance to pull off a major upset and boost his career.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Not available	Shakur Stevenson	★★★★★ 95%
Spread	Not available	Shakur Stevenson by TKO/KO	★★★★☆ 80%
Over_under	Not available	Under	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Shakur Stevenson is expected to win due to his superior skills and experience.

Predicted Score: Shakur Stevenson wins by TKO/KO in rounds 6-8.