Match Analysis: Magomed Magomedov vs Sergio Pettis – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-03
• Time: 3:00 PM UTC
• Location: Coca-Cola Arena, Dubai, United Arab Emirates

Game Overview

The bantamweight title bout features Magomed Magomedov and Sergio Pettis at the Coca-Cola Arena in Dubai. Magomedov, the home fighter, is the betting favorite, while Pettis, a former Bellator Bantamweight Champion, brings experience and motivation into a highly anticipated rematch in the Professional Fighters League (PFL) Champions Series.

Key Factors to Consider

• Magomed Magomedov has shown dominant striking and grappling skills, maintaining an aggressive pace in recent fights. Sergio Pettis, known for technical striking and solid ground game, has been performing well within PFL and Bellator, recently emphasizing delivering an A+ performance regardless of outcome, reflecting strong mental focus.
• This fight is a rematch, signaling close previous encounters and familiarity with each other's styles, which often tightens fight strategies. Both fighters have prepared extensively for this bout in Dubai, with Pettis notably emphasizing mental resilience ahead of the rematch.
• No current injuries have been reported for either fighter ahead of the match.
• The fight’s location in Dubai could present external factors such as climate and travel considerations; Magomedov is the home-side fighter while Pettis has been adjusting and maintaining focus despite these conditions. The event is a major PFL Champions Series headliner with significant media coverage and streaming available worldwide.
• Sergio Pettis has expressed the importance of fatherhood and legacy, with clear motivation to prove himself regardless of the result, aiming for a title shot and top performance. Magomedov, as the favorite and home fighter, carries the pressure to maintain his standing and capitalize on home advantage.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Magomed Magomedov: -240, Sergio Pettis: 205	Magomed Magomedov	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Magomed Magomedov -1.5: -110, Sergio Pettis +1.5: -110	Magomed Magomedov -1.5	★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -200, Under 2.5 rounds: 174	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Magomed Magomedov -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Magomed Magomedov at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Magomed Magomedov is favored to win based on current odds and performance trends, with a predicted win by decision or late rounds given his pressure style and Pettis’ technical resilience. The fight is expected to be competitive, potentially going over 2.5 rounds due to Pettis’ durability.

Predicted Score: Magomed Magomedov wins via decision or late round finish after 3+ rounds

Match Analysis: Raufeon Stots vs Sergio Pettis – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-27
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Wintrust Arena, Chicago

Game Overview

The bantamweight semifinal bout at the 2025 PFL World Tournament features former teammates and Bellator bantamweight champions Raufeon Stots and Sergio Pettis. Both fighters bring extensive experience and championship pedigree to the cage. Pettis, with a record of 23-7, is coming off a year-long hiatus and two straight losses but is known for elite boxing skills and star power. Stots, at 21-2, is a strong wrestler with quick striking combinations and a calculated fight style, having notable wins over top opponents, though he suffered two significant knockout losses in the past. This matchup is highly anticipated due to their shared history and contrasting fighting styles, with the winner advancing to the PFL finals[1][2].

Key Factors to Consider

• Individually, both fighters have shown top-tier skills. Pettis excelled in UFC and Bellator, notably for his boxing, but recent losses and inactivity may affect his sharpness. Stots is known for his wrestling credentials and tactical approach, with success in PFL so far, displaying resilience and patience in fights. Both fighters have proven their ability to finish fights and dominate rounds, but momentum favors Stots currently[2].
• No direct previous fights between Raufeon Stots and Sergio Pettis are recorded, but they share a history as former teammates and Bellator champions, adding an emotional and strategic layer to this bout[1].
• No public reports of current injuries for either fighter leading into this match have been noted, indicating both are expected to compete at full health[1][2].
• The fight takes place in Chicago at Wintrust Arena, a neutral venue for both fighters. Media attention and fan interest are high due to their shared past and championship statuses. Pettis' one-year hiatus and momentum loss contrasts with Stots' recent activity and focus within PFL. There are no indications of environmental or logistical concerns affecting either fighter[1][2][3][4][5].
• Pettis seeks to reclaim his winning form and break his losing streak, motivated by the opportunity to advance in the PFL and rejuvenate his career. Stots aims to consolidate his rising status in PFL, leveraging his recent successes and wrestling pedigree to secure his place in the finals. Both fighters have strong incentives, but Stots' current momentum and activity may provide an edge in motivation and readiness[2].

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Raufeon Stots: -175, Sergio Pettis: 145	Raufeon Stots	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Stots -1.5 rounds: -120, Pettis +1.5 rounds: 100	Stots -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Raufeon Stots -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Raufeon Stots at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Raufeon Stots is slightly favored to win this tightly contested bantamweight bout due to his recent activity, wrestling strength, and fight IQ, despite Pettis' elite boxing and championship experience. Stots' ability to control the fight on the ground and dictate pace should give him an advantage, but Pettis' striking power keeps the fight competitive and potentially volatile.

Predicted Score: Stots wins by decision or late stoppage in round 3