Match Analysis: Sergey Bilostenniy vs Karl Williams – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-21
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino, Hollywood, Florida

Game Overview

The heavyweight bout between Sergey Bilostenniy and Karl Williams is a key feature of the final stop of the 2025 PFL World Tournament. Both fighters bring strong grappling backgrounds and solid MMA records into this clash as they compete for heavyweight tournament glory. Bilostenniy holds a 13-4 record while Williams stands at 10-3. The bout is scheduled for five five-minute rounds, showcasing top-tier MMA competition.

Key Factors to Consider

• Bilostenniy has a 13-4 record with recent wins including a first-round heel hook submission over Tyrell Fortune. Karl Williams has a slightly shorter ring experience with a 10-3 record. Both fighters have demonstrated strong grappling and submission skills in recent bouts, making ground control a critical factor.
• This match is their first direct meeting, with no previous head-to-head encounters between Bilostenniy and Williams found in the data.
• No reported injuries or fitness concerns for either fighter leading up to the August 21 bout.
• The fight takes place at the PFL World Tournament Finals in Hollywood, Florida, a high-stakes environment with significant prize money influencing fighter motivation. Both fighters are experienced and used to fighting under pressure in major events.
• With the heavyweight championship on the line and over $20 million in prize money at stake in the 2025 PFL World Tournament Finals, motivation levels for both Sergey Bilostenniy and Karl Williams are extremely high to perform and secure the title.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Karl Williams: +150, Sergey Bilostenniy: -185	Sergey Bilostenniy to win	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Sergey Bilostenniy: -1.5, Karl Williams: +1.5	Bilostenniy to win by more than one round or decisively	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over_2.5_rounds: -110, under_2.5_rounds: -110	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sergey Bilostenniy -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Sergey Bilostenniy at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sergey Bilostenniy is favored to win due to his slightly more extensive record and recent submission success. His aggressive grappling style and experience in five-round fights at high-stakes events give him an edge over Karl Williams, though Williams’ resilience and power present a credible challenge.

Predicted Score: Bilostenniy wins by unanimous decision after 5 rounds

Match Analysis: Valentin Moldavsky vs Sergey Bilostenniy – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: May 2, 2025
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Not specified

Game Overview

Valentin Moldavsky and Sergey Bilostenniy will face off in a highly anticipated MMA match as part of the PFL Challenger Series. Moldavsky, known for his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills, is favored with a moneyline of -135, while Bilostenniy is a close underdog at 105. Both fighters have similar win-loss records, with Moldavsky at 13-4-0 and Bilostenniy at 13-3-0. The fight lacks recent head-to-head statistics, making past performances and fighter profiles crucial for prediction.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both fighters have strong MMA backgrounds. Valentin Moldavsky, with his BJJ expertise, might focus on ground fighting, while Sergey Bilostenniy could rely on his size and reach.
• No recent head-to-head data available.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• Motivation will be high for both fighters as they look for a victory in the PFL series.
• Both fighters are motivated to secure a win and advance in the tournament.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Valentin Moldavsky: -135, Sergey Bilostenniy: +105	Valentin Moldavsky	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Valentin Moldavsky -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Valentin Moldavsky at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Valentin Moldavsky is likely to win based on his favored odds and BJJ skills, which could provide an edge in a close fight.

Predicted Score: N/A (MMA does not use a traditional score)